Crystal Palace
vs
Manchester City
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 36% Crystal Palace, 22% draw, 42% Manchester City — fair odds of 2.78, 4.55 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Crystal Palace 1.83, Manchester City 1.98.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Crystal Palace vs Manchester City
- 13 May 2026Manchester City 3–0 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 14 December 2025Crystal Palace 0–3 Manchester CityPremier League
- 17 May 2025Crystal Palace 1–0 Manchester CityFA Cup
- 12 April 2025Manchester City 5–2 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 7 December 2024Crystal Palace 2–2 Manchester CityPremier League
- 6 April 2024Crystal Palace 2–4 Manchester CityPremier League
The two sides
Crystal Palace carry a model rating of 6.9 against 7.09 for Manchester City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.98 for Manchester City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Crystal Palace rate 1.14 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Manchester City rate 1.37 and 0.85.
That points to 73% for over two and a half goals and 73% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 334 correct results out of 699 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Manchester City the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Crystal Palace against 1.98 for Manchester City. Crystal Palace's attack/defence rating is 1.14/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.37/0.85 for Manchester City.