Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Legia Warszawa 1-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Legia Warszawa, 25% draw, 23% Slask Wroclaw — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Legia Warszawa at 52% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 89O. HindrichG
- 91K. PiatkowskiD
- 8R. AugustyniakD
- 5R. DezielD
- 22P. WszolekM
- 6H. ArreiolM
- 55A. JedrzejczykM
- 19R. VinagreM
- 23M. SevcikF
- 79L. ZjawinskiF
- 7J. KuchtaF
- 1I. BrkicG
- 24Z. ArsenicD
- 67B. KapustkaM
- 4D. SzymanskiM
- 13A. RecaD
- 53W. UrbanskiM
- 99S. KovacikF
- 17M. SzczepaniakM
- 11K. ChodynaM
- 1K. NiemczyckiG
- 27M. RosiakD
- 33Y. MatsenkoD
- 5L. BaD
- 44M. MalecD
- 8M. LlinaresD
- 7P. Samiec-TalarM
- 20G. TomasiewiczM
- 77E. ShabaniM
- 10P. M. DembeleF
- 11L. MarjanacF
- 25M. SzromnikG
- 3I. ChristodoulouD
- 2D. SzalaD
- 4M. DijakovicD
- 38D. MarkowskiM
- 21A. TimossiD
- 15J. YriarteM
- 19P. BanaszakF
- 88A. CiuckaM
Form going into Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw
Legia Warszawa
- D1-1away to Piast Gliwice22 August 2026
Slask Wroclaw
- D3-3Widzew Łódź22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Legia Warszawa | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 19 |
| 15 | Slask Wroclaw | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw
- 2 March 2025Legia Warszawa 3–1 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 25 August 2024Slask Wroclaw 1–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 21 April 2024Legia Warszawa 0–0 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 21 October 2023Slask Wroclaw 4–0 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 27 May 2023Legia Warszawa 3–1 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 13 November 2022Slask Wroclaw 0–0 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw
Legia Warszawa
- R. Augustyniak4 goals2 assists
- R. Adamski3 goals
- Ł. Zjawiński3 goals
Slask Wroclaw
- P. Samiec-Talar4 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.