Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Korona Kielce 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Korona Kielce, 27% draw, 47% Legia Warszawa — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Legia Warszawa at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1X. DziekonskiG
- 23S. RubezicD
- 44K. SotiriouD
- 2A. MosorD
- 71W. DlugoszM
- 18P. HellebrandM
- 35K. JakubczykM
- 6M. PieczekM
- 86S. GustafsonF
- 22M. FassbenderF
- 14M. StepinskiF
- 87R. MamlaG
- 10NonoM
- 11K. MatuszewskiD
- 37H. ZwoznyD
- 24B. SmolarczykD
- 9S. DavidovicM
- 21K. CiszekD
- 8M. RemacleM
- 99D. BakF
- 89O. HindrichG
- 91K. PiatkowskiD
- 8R. AugustyniakD
- 5R. DezielD
- 4D. SzymanskiM
- 22P. WszolekM
- 53W. UrbanskiM
- 67B. KapustkaM
- 19R. VinagreM
- 79L. ZjawinskiF
- 9R. AdamskiF
- 59J. BiendugaG
- 13A. RecaD
- 23M. SevcikM
- 6H. ArreiolM
- 20J. ZewlakowF
- 97E. MikanovichM
- 77F. PrzybylkoM
- 11K. ChodynaM
- 29M. RajovicF
Form going into Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa
Korona Kielce
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Gornik Zabrze1 August 2026
- L0-1away to Jagiellonia25 July 2026
Legia Warszawa
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Zaglebie Lubin2 August 2026
- W1-0away to Pogon Szczecin24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Korona Kielce | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 18 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 25 | 15 | +10 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa
- 1 February 2026Legia Warszawa 1–2 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 27 July 2025Korona Kielce 0–2 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 2 February 2025Legia Warszawa 1–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 28 July 2024Korona Kielce 0–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 25 February 2024Korona Kielce 3–3 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa
Korona Kielce
GoalsAssists
- M. Stępiński60
Legia Warszawa
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Legia Warszawa at 47% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: L. Zjawinski 28' for Legia Warszawa, M. Stepinski 70' for Korona Kielce. On expected goals it finished 0.67–0.61.