Korona Kielce
vs
Legia Warszawa
The model makes it 26% Korona Kielce, 27% draw, 47% Legia Warszawa — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Korona Kielce 1.02, Legia Warszawa 1.47.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Korona Kielce
- L0-1away to Jagiellonia25 July 2026
Legia Warszawa
- W3-1Zaglebie Lubin2 August 2026
- W1-0away to Pogon Szczecin24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Korona Kielce | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 1 | Legia Warszawa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa
- 1 February 2026Legia Warszawa 1–2 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 27 July 2025Korona Kielce 0–2 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 2 February 2025Legia Warszawa 1–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 28 July 2024Korona Kielce 0–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 25 February 2024Korona Kielce 3–3 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 6 December 2023Korona Kielce 2–1 Legia WarszawaCup
The two sides
Korona Kielce carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.87 for Legia Warszawa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Korona Kielce L; Legia Warszawa W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.02 goals for Korona Kielce and 1.47 for Legia Warszawa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Korona Kielce rate 0.63 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Legia Warszawa rate 0.87 and 0.86.
That points to 46% for over two and a half goals and 50% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Legia Warszawa the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Korona Kielce against 1.47 for Legia Warszawa. Korona Kielce's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/0.86 for Legia Warszawa.