Radomiak Radom
vs
Gornik Zabrze
The model makes it 22% Radomiak Radom, 24% draw, 54% Gornik Zabrze — fair odds of 4.55, 4.17 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Radomiak Radom 1.11, Gornik Zabrze 1.87.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Radomiak Radom
- L1-3away to GKS Katowice2 August 2026
- W2-1Wieczysta Kraków24 July 2026
Gornik Zabrze
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Radomiak Radom | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 6 | Gornik Zabrze | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze
- 23 May 2026Gornik Zabrze 6–2 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 28 November 2025Radomiak Radom 4–0 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 15 February 2025Gornik Zabrze 3–2 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 25 September 2024Gornik Zabrze 0–1 Radomiak RadomCup
- 9 August 2024Radomiak Radom 1–2 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 9 December 2023Radomiak Radom 1–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
Leading scorers
Radomiak Radom
- J. Grzesik1 goals1 assists
Gornik Zabrze
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Radomiak Radom carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.63 for Gornik Zabrze. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Radomiak Radom W-L; Gornik Zabrze W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.11 goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.87 for Gornik Zabrze. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Radomiak Radom rate 0.53 in attack and 1.88 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gornik Zabrze rate 0.71 and 1.11.
That points to 57% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gornik Zabrze the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Radomiak Radom against 1.87 for Gornik Zabrze. Radomiak Radom's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.11 for Gornik Zabrze.