Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Radomiak Radom 1-3 Gornik Zabrze.
Before kick-off the model made it 22% Radomiak Radom, 24% draw, 54% Gornik Zabrze — fair odds of 4.55, 4.17 and 1.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Gornik Zabrze at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Filip MajchrowiczG
- 24Zié OuattaraD
- 3Kryspin SzcześniakD
- 26Adrián DiéguezD
- 97Conrado BuchanelliD
- 8Ibrahima CamaráM
- 13Jan GrzesikM
- 27Rafał WolskiM
- 82LuquinhasM
- 7Ché NunnelyM
- 11Fernand GouréF
- 90Ronaldo LumungoF
- 15Abdoul TapsobaF
- 72Filip KoperskiM
- 18ManuF
- 23Kacper KarasekM
- 99Bartlomiej GradeckiG
- 47Szymon KilianekD
- 5Jérémy BlascoD
- 28Romário BaróM
- 1Philipp SchulzeG
- 61Michal SáčekD
- 26Rafał JanickiD
- 4Paweł BochniewiczD
- 21Ondřej ZmrzlýD
- 66Maximilian DietzM
- 19Peter GonzálezM
- 82Kacper UrbańskiM
- 8Paulo BernardoM
- 33Maksym KhlanM
- 23Sondre LisethF
- 28Bastien DonioM
- 18Lukáš SadílekM
- 88Taofeek IsmaheelM
- 7Yvan Ikia DimiM
- 11Erik PrekopF
- 99Tomasz LoskaG
- 2Patryk WarczakD
- 20JosemaD
- 64Erik JanžaD
Form going into Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze
Radomiak Radom
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to GKS Katowice2 August 2026
- W2-1Wieczysta Kraków24 July 2026
Gornik Zabrze
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Ferencvarosi TC5 August 2026
- W2-0away to Korona Kielce1 August 2026
- D1-1Fenerbahçe29 July 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw25 July 2026
- L0-1away to Fenerbahçe21 July 2026
What these results say
- Gornik Zabrze conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Gornik Zabrze had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 14 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze
- 23 May 2026Gornik Zabrze 6–2 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 28 November 2025Radomiak Radom 4–0 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 15 February 2025Gornik Zabrze 3–2 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- 25 September 2024Gornik Zabrze 0–1 Radomiak RadomCup
- 9 August 2024Radomiak Radom 1–2 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze
Radomiak Radom
GoalsAssists
- J. Grzesik53
Gornik Zabrze
GoalsAssists
- K. UrbaÅski51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gornik Zabrze won 3–1 at Radomiak Radom. The model had made a win for Gornik Zabrze its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Peter Federico 28' for Gornik Zabrze, K. Urbanski (penalty) 45+4' for Gornik Zabrze, Peter Federico 64' for Gornik Zabrze, R. Wolski (penalty) 67' for Radomiak Radom. On expected goals it finished 2.02–2.28.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.