Pogon Szczecin
vs
Motor Lublin
The model makes it 57% Pogon Szczecin, 21% draw, 22% Motor Lublin — fair odds of 1.75, 4.76 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Pogon Szczecin 2.23, Motor Lublin 1.32.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Pogon Szczecin
- W2-0away to Cracovia Krakow3 August 2026
- L0-1Legia Warszawa24 July 2026
Motor Lublin
- L1-2Jagiellonia31 July 2026
- D2-2away to Widzew Łódź26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pogon Szczecin | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 14 | Motor Lublin | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin
- 1 February 2026Motor Lublin 2–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 26 July 2025Pogon Szczecin 4–1 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 14 May 2025Pogon Szczecin 3–0 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 2 November 2024Motor Lublin 4–2 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
Leading scorers
Pogon Szczecin
- P. Mukairu1 goals1 assists
Motor Lublin
- M. Ndiaye1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Pogon Szczecin carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.52 for Motor Lublin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Pogon Szczecin L-W; Motor Lublin D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.23 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.32 for Motor Lublin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pogon Szczecin rate 0.78 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Motor Lublin rate 0.78 and 1.51.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pogon Szczecin the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin against 1.32 for Motor Lublin. Pogon Szczecin's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.51 for Motor Lublin.