Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Pogon Szczecin 3-1 Motor Lublin.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Pogon Szczecin, 21% draw, 22% Motor Lublin — fair odds of 1.75, 4.76 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Pogon Szczecin at 57%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 77Valentin CojocaruG
- 28Linus WahlqvistD
- 13Dimitrios KeramitsisD
- 41Attila SzalaiD
- 4Léo BorgesD
- 8Fredrik UlvestadM
- 16Patryk DziczekM
- 35Maciej WojciechowskiM
- 7Musa JuwaraM
- 21Darko ChurlinovM
- 18Paul MukairuF
- 83Axel HolewińskiG
- 29Lukas WillenD
- 15Hussein AliD
- 23Benjamin MendyD
- 47Natan ŁawaM
- 19Mor NdiayeM
- 11Kamil GrosickiM
- 6Jan BiegańskiM
- 3Kellyn AcostaM
- 71Mihai PopaG
- 29Thomas SantosD
- 18Bartosz BereszyńskiD
- 4Tin PlavotićD
- 24Filip LubereckiD
- 27Yacine BourhaneM
- 30Mbaye NdiayeM
- 8Christopher SimonM
- 6Mateusz ŁęgowskiM
- 11Fábio RonaldoM
- 10Karol CzubakF
- 99Patryk KukulskiG
- 33Gašper TratnikG
- 5Artem AkatovD
- 2Paskal MeyerD
- 39Marek Kristián BartošD
- 16Franciszek LewandowskiM
- 17Kamil LukoszekM
- 90Dominik GregorskiF
- 70Makan AïkoM
Form going into Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin
Pogon Szczecin
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Cracovia Krakow3 August 2026
- L0-1Legia Warszawa24 July 2026
Motor Lublin
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Jagiellonia31 July 2026
- D2-2away to Widzew Łódź26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 24 |
| 10 | Motor Lublin | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin
- 1 February 2026Motor Lublin 2–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 26 July 2025Pogon Szczecin 4–1 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 14 May 2025Pogon Szczecin 3–0 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 2 November 2024Motor Lublin 4–2 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Pogon Szczecin and Motor Lublin
Pogon Szczecin
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Sánchez91
Motor Lublin
GoalsAssists
- K. Czubak70
- M. Ndiaye43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Pogon Szczecin beat Motor Lublin 3–1. The model had made a win for Pogon Szczecin its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: D. Churlinov 17' for Pogon Szczecin, A. Szalai 43' for Pogon Szczecin, M. Aiko 90' for Motor Lublin, K. Acosta 90' for Pogon Szczecin. On expected goals it finished 2.25–0.52.