Regular Season - 17 · 28 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Wigan vs Plymouth League One prediction

The Brick Community Stadium, Wigan

Our model says: Wigan 0–1 Plymouth

The model makes it 31% Wigan, 29% draw, 40% Plymouth — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Wigan 1.15, Plymouth 1.36.

Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Edge to Plymouth: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Wigan's rating is built from 61 League One matches and Plymouth's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,277 matches.

Key facts

  • Wigan are 19th on 14 points from 15 games; Plymouth are 6th on 23 points from 15 games — League One.
  • Wigan are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Barnsley.
  • Plymouth have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Sheffield Wednesday.
  • Last 6 meetings: Wigan 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 10 March 2026, ended Wigan 0–3 Plymouth.

More League One predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Wigan vs Plymouth

51%
Both teams to score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Wigan win Draw Plymouth win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 0–110%
  3. 0–09%
  4. 1–09%
  5. 1–29%
  6. 0–28%
  7. 2–17%

Scores read Wigan first; the other scorelines share the remaining 36%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Plymouth at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Wigan vs Plymouth

Wigan

League One

  • W2-1Barnsley14 November 2026
  • D0-0Mansfield Town3 November 2026
  • W3-2Bromley31 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Leicester27 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Huddersfield24 October 2026

Plymouth

League One

  • L0-3away to Sheffield Wednesday14 November 2026
  • D0-0Reading31 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Cambridge United24 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Stevenage20 October 2026
  • L0-2Huddersfield17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Wigan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Wigan had three goals or more.
  • Plymouth failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Plymouth failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Plymouth conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Wigan154291323-1014
6Plymouth157262122-123

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Wigan

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 37% today

Win 30%
Draw 38%
Defeat 42%

From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Wigan vs Plymouth

  • 10 March 2026Wigan 0–3 PlymouthLeague One
  • 4 October 2025Plymouth 1–1 WiganLeague One
  • 23 April 2022Wigan 1–1 PlymouthLeague One
  • 27 November 2021Plymouth 1–2 WiganLeague One
  • 9 March 2021Plymouth 0–2 WiganLeague One
  • 24 October 2020Wigan 1–1 PlymouthLeague One

Leading scorers: Wigan and Plymouth

Wigan

No player in League One's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Plymouth

GoalsAssists

  • A. Pepple50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Wigan a 0% chance of the title and Plymouth 0.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Wigan v Plymouth has moved

First published on 14 Nov at 29% / 29% / 42% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 31% / 29% / 40%: the biggest move is Wigan's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Wigan win31%▲ +2
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Plymouth win40%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Wigan Plymouth
0.41 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.62
1.77 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.83
1.15 Model expected goals (this match) 1.36

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Plymouth the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Wigan against 1.36 for Plymouth. Wigan's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.83 for Plymouth.

Wigan carry a model rating of 6.13 against 6.31 for Plymouth.

How the model reaches 40% for Plymouth to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Plymouth to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Wigan's ratings add 4 points and Plymouth's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 40%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage31%−5
  3. Both sides at this match's level30%−1
  4. Wigan's ratings34%+4
  5. Plymouth's ratings40%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

WiganPlymouth
15Matches15
4W 2D 9LRecord7W 2D 6L
13 0.9 per gameGoals scored21 1.4 per game
23 1.5 per gameGoals conceded22 1.5 per game
3 of 15Clean sheets4 of 15
8 of 15Failed to score6 of 15
–Penalties scored1 of 1
40 2.7 per gameYellow cards22 1.5 per game
1Red cards0
3-4-2-1 6×Usual shape4-4-2 11×

Wigan at home · Plymouth away

8Played8
4W 1D 3LRecord4W 1D 3L
9–11Goals for – against13–15
2 of 8Clean sheets1 of 8

League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League One matches this season: Wigan 15, Plymouth 15.

Wigan scored 022260
Plymouth conceded 254426

Wigan score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Plymouth have let in 2 there.

Plymouth scored 142724
Wigan conceded 433525

Plymouth score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Wigan have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Wigan

  • at Burton Albion1 Dec · League Onewin 28%
  • at Luton12 Dec · League Onewin 18%
  • vs Peterborough19 Dec · League Onewin 40%
  • at Doncaster26 Dec · League Onewin 30%

Plymouth

  • vs Bromley1 Dec · League Onewin 66%
  • at Notts County12 Dec · League Onewin 30%
  • vs Mansfield Town19 Dec · League Onewin 41%
  • at Oxford United26 Dec · League Onewin 21%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.