Regular Season - 17 · 28 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Sheffield Wednesday vs Reading League One prediction

Hillsborough, Sheffield

Our model says: Sheffield Wednesday 1–0 Reading

The model makes it 45% Sheffield Wednesday, 27% draw, 28% Reading — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Sheffield Wednesday 1.60, Reading 1.17.

Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Sheffield Wednesday's rating is built from 14 League One matches and Reading's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,277 matches.

Key facts

  • Sheffield Wednesday are 5th on 23 points from 14 games; Reading are 7th on 22 points from 15 games — League One.
  • Sheffield Wednesday are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Plymouth.
  • Reading are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Stockport County.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 March 2021, ended Reading 3–0 Sheffield Wednesday.

More League One predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Sheffield Wednesday vs Reading

56%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Sheffield Wednesday win Draw Reading win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–09%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 1–27%
  6. 0–07%
  7. 0–17%

Scores read Sheffield Wednesday first; the other scorelines share the remaining 42%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Sheffield Wednesday at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Sheffield Wednesday vs Reading

Sheffield Wednesday

League One

  • W3-0Plymouth14 November 2026
  • D1-1Blackpool1 November 2026
  • D1-1Cambridge United27 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Doncaster24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Notts County20 October 2026

Reading

League One

  • L1-3away to Stockport County14 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Oxford United4 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Plymouth31 October 2026
  • W2-1Barnsley24 October 2026
  • W1-0Leyton Orient21 October 2026

What these results say

  • Sheffield Wednesday failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Sheffield Wednesday conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Sheffield Wednesday had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Sheffield Wednesday146532514+1123
7Reading156452618+822

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Sheffield Wednesday

Chance to finish in the top two · 12% today

Win 15%
Draw 10%
Defeat 9%

Reading

Chance to finish in the top two · 7% today

Win 9%
Draw 7%
Defeat 5%

From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Sheffield Wednesday vs Reading

  • 6 March 2021Reading 3–0 Sheffield WednesdayChampionship
  • 2 December 2020Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 ReadingChampionship
  • 15 February 2020Sheffield Wednesday 0–3 ReadingChampionship
  • 3 August 2019Reading 1–3 Sheffield WednesdayChampionship
  • 9 February 2019Sheffield Wednesday 0–0 ReadingChampionship
  • 1 September 2018Reading 1–2 Sheffield WednesdayChampionship

Leading scorers: Sheffield Wednesday and Reading

Sheffield Wednesday

GoalsAssists

  • J. Lowe52

Reading

GoalsAssists

  • J. Marriott90
  • Kyreece Lisbie55

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sheffield Wednesday a 5.1% chance of the title and Reading 2.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Sheffield Wednesday v Reading has moved

First published on 14 Nov at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is Sheffield Wednesday's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Sheffield Wednesday win45%▲ +6
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Reading win28%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Sheffield Wednesday Reading
0.64 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.63
1.5 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.63
1.60 Model expected goals (this match) 1.17

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Sheffield Wednesday the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday against 1.17 for Reading. Sheffield Wednesday's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.63 for Reading.

Sheffield Wednesday carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.37 for Reading. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 45% for Sheffield Wednesday to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sheffield Wednesday to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Sheffield Wednesday's ratings add 1 point and Reading's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 45%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage42%+6
  3. Sheffield Wednesday's ratings43%+1
  4. Reading's ratings45%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Sheffield WednesdayReading
14Matches15
6W 5D 3LRecord6W 4D 5L
25 1.8 per gameGoals scored26 1.7 per game
14 1.0 per gameGoals conceded18 1.2 per game
4 of 14Clean sheets5 of 15
5 of 14Failed to score4 of 15
3 of 3Penalties scored0 of 1
29 2.1 per gameYellow cards29 1.9 per game
2Red cards0
4-2-3-1 10×Usual shape4-2-3-1 12×

Sheffield Wednesday at home · Reading away

8Played8
3W 4D 1LRecord1W 3D 4L
17–5Goals for – against9–11
4 of 8Clean sheets2 of 8

League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League One matches this season: Sheffield Wednesday 14, Reading 15.

Sheffield Wednesday scored 227427
Reading conceded 401545
Reading scored 307645
Sheffield Wednesday conceded 222324

Reading score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Sheffield Wednesday have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Sheffield Wednesday

  • at Oxford United1 Dec · League Onewin 26%
  • at Leicester10 Dec · League Onewin 36%
  • vs Luton19 Dec · League Onewin 44%

Reading

  • vs Doncaster1 Dec · League Onewin 55%
  • at Burton Albion12 Dec · League Onewin 42%
  • vs Leicester19 Dec · League Onewin 46%
  • at Stevenage26 Dec · League Onewin 33%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.