Regular Season - 17 · 28 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Stockport County vs Leyton Orient League One prediction

Edgeley Park, Stockport

Our model says: Stockport County 1–0 Leyton Orient

The model makes it 50% Stockport County, 27% draw, 23% Leyton Orient — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Stockport County 1.72, Leyton Orient 1.00.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

Edge to Stockport County: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Stockport County's rating is built from 64 League One matches and Leyton Orient's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,277 matches.

Key facts

  • Stockport County are 2nd on 29 points from 15 games; Leyton Orient are 14th on 17 points from 13 games — League One.
  • Stockport County have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Reading.
  • Leyton Orient have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Cambridge United.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 7 February 2026, ended Stockport County 0–0 Leyton Orient.

More League One predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Stockport County vs Leyton Orient

52%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Stockport County win Draw Leyton Orient win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 2–110%
  4. 2–010%
  5. 0–07%
  6. 0–16%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Stockport County first; the other scorelines share the remaining 38%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Stockport County at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Stockport County vs Leyton Orient

Stockport County

League One

  • W3-1Reading14 November 2026
  • W2-1AFC Wimbledon31 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Oxford United27 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Notts County24 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Doncaster20 October 2026

Leyton Orient

League One

  • W3-0Cambridge United31 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Burton Albion24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Reading21 October 2026
  • W2-0Blackpool17 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Bradford10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Stockport County scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Stockport County conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Stockport County159242915+1429
14Leyton Orient135261914+517

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Stockport County

Chance to finish in the top two · 29% today

Win 31%
Draw 26%
Defeat 25%

From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Stockport County vs Leyton Orient

  • 7 February 2026Stockport County 0–0 Leyton OrientLeague One
  • 16 August 2025Leyton Orient 2–2 Stockport CountyLeague One
  • 14 May 2025Stockport County 1–1 Leyton OrientLeague One
  • 10 May 2025Leyton Orient 2–2 Stockport CountyLeague One
  • 1 February 2025Leyton Orient 0–1 Stockport CountyLeague One
  • 21 September 2024Stockport County 1–4 Leyton OrientLeague One

Leading scorers: Stockport County and Leyton Orient

Stockport County

GoalsAssists

  • K. Wootton102
  • J. Diamond63

Leyton Orient

GoalsAssists

  • J. Kabia42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stockport County a 14.3% chance of the title and Leyton Orient 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Stockport County v Leyton Orient has moved

First published on 14 Nov at 48% / 27% / 25% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 50% / 27% / 23%: the biggest move is Stockport County's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Stockport County win50%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Leyton Orient win23%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Stockport County Leyton Orient
0.67 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.53
1.53 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.67
1.72 Model expected goals (this match) 1.00

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Stockport County the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Stockport County against 1.00 for Leyton Orient. Stockport County's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.67 for Leyton Orient.

Stockport County carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.28 for Leyton Orient.

How the model reaches 50% for Stockport County to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Stockport County to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Stockport County's ratings add 5 points and Leyton Orient's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 50%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage42%+6
  3. Both sides at this match's level41%−1
  4. Stockport County's ratings46%+5
  5. Leyton Orient's ratings50%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Stockport CountyLeyton Orient
15Matches13
9W 2D 4LRecord5W 2D 6L
29 1.9 per gameGoals scored19 1.5 per game
15 1.0 per gameGoals conceded14 1.1 per game
5 of 15Clean sheets6 of 13
3 of 15Failed to score3 of 13
0 of 1Penalties scored1 of 1
17 1.1 per gameYellow cards23 1.8 per game
3-4-3 12×Usual shape3-4-2-1 6×

Stockport County at home · Leyton Orient away

8Played6
6W 0D 2LRecord2W 2D 2L
19–10Goals for – against9–4
2 of 8Clean sheets3 of 6

League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League One matches this season: Stockport County 15, Leyton Orient 13.

Stockport County scored 371765
Leyton Orient conceded 222522
Leyton Orient scored 115524
Stockport County conceded 423402

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Stockport County

  • at Mansfield Town1 Dec · League Onewin 36%
  • at Stevenage12 Dec · League Onewin 36%
  • vs Milton Keynes Dons19 Dec · League Onewin 49%
  • at Bradford26 Dec · League Onewin 34%

Leyton Orient

  • vs Peterborough1 Dec · League Onewin 49%
  • at Huddersfield12 Dec · League Onewin 22%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.