Corvinul Hunedoara
vs
Farul Constanta
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Corvinul Hunedoara 1–0 Farul Constanta
The model makes it 43% Corvinul Hunedoara, 28% draw, 29% Farul Constanta — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Corvinul Hunedoara 1.46, Farul Constanta 1.09.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Corvinul Hunedoara's rating is built from 15 Romanian Liga I matches and Farul Constanta's from 56, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 760 matches.
Key facts
- Corvinul Hunedoara are 7th on 22 points from 15 games; Farul Constanta are 6th on 24 points from 15 games — Liga I.
- Corvinul Hunedoara have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to FCSB.
- Farul Constanta are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Rapid.
- Last 2 meetings: Farul Constanta 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 July 2026, ended Farul Constanta 2–0 Corvinul Hunedoara.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Corvinul Hunedoara vs Farul Constanta
Has the model earned this number?
Corvinul Hunedoara at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Corvinul Hunedoara vs Farul Constanta
Corvinul Hunedoara
Liga I
- W1-0away to FCSB7 November 2026
- W2-0Arges Pitesti31 October 2026
- L0-3Universitatea Cluj23 October 2026
- L0-2away to Rapid17 October 2026
- W3-2FC Voluntari9 October 2026
Farul Constanta
Liga I
- D1-1Rapid7 November 2026
- W2-1away to FC Voluntari2 November 2026
- W4-3Oțelul25 October 2026
- L0-2away to Universitatea Craiova18 October 2026
- W3-1Petrolul Ploiesti11 October 2026
What these results say
- Farul Constanta conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Farul Constanta scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Farul Constanta.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 | Farul Constanta | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 22 | +2 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Corvinul Hunedoara
Chance to finish in the top six · 30% today
Farul Constanta
Chance to finish in the top six · 49% today
From our Liga I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Corvinul Hunedoara vs Farul Constanta
- 25 July 2026Farul Constanta 2–0 Corvinul HunedoaraLiga I
- 28 August 2025Corvinul Hunedoara 0–1 Farul ConstantaCupa României
Leading scorers: Corvinul Hunedoara and Farul Constanta
Corvinul Hunedoara
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Farul Constanta
GoalsAssists
- M. Ahlinvi71
- E. Rădăslăvescu53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Farul Constanta (sixth, with Corvinul Hunedoara seventh), while our numbers lean to Corvinul Hunedoara. Corvinul Hunedoara rate 0.57 in attack and 1.42 in defence, Farul Constanta 0.69 and 1.71 (lower is better in defence), so Corvinul Hunedoara have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Corvinul Hunedoara a 0% chance of the title and Farul Constanta 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Corvinul Hunedoara the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Corvinul Hunedoara against 1.09 for Farul Constanta. Corvinul Hunedoara's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.71 for Farul Constanta.
How the model reaches 43% for Corvinul Hunedoara to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Corvinul Hunedoara to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Corvinul Hunedoara's ratings take away 1 point and Farul Constanta's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Corvinul Hunedoara's ratings42%−1
- Farul Constanta's ratings43%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Corvinul Hunedoara at home · Farul Constanta away
League matches only, Liga I, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Corvinul HunedoaraFarul Constanta
Corvinul Hunedoara are 7th after 15 Liga I matches (between 2nd and 10th so far); Farul Constanta are 6th after 15 (between 3rd and 13th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: Corvinul Hunedoara 15, Farul Constanta 15.
Corvinul Hunedoara score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Farul Constanta have let in 3 there.
Farul Constanta score most often in the 16–30 minute window (9 goals); Corvinul Hunedoara have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Corvinul Hunedoara
- at Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe5 Dec · Liga Iwin 37%
- vs FC Botosani12 Dec · Liga Iwin 45%
- at CFR 1907 Cluj19 Dec · Liga Iwin 24%
- vs Uta Arad16 Jan · Liga Iwin 43%
Farul Constanta
- vs FCSB5 Dec · Liga Iwin 41%
- at Csikszereda12 Dec · Liga Iwin 42%
- vs Arges Pitesti19 Dec · Liga Iwin 46%
- vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe16 Jan · Liga Iwin 54%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.