Jagiellonia
vs
Gornik Zabrze
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Jagiellonia 1–0 Gornik Zabrze
The model makes it 35% Jagiellonia, 30% draw, 35% Gornik Zabrze — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Jagiellonia 1.32, Gornik Zabrze 1.31.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Jagiellonia at 35% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze
Jagiellonia
- L1-3Legia Warszawa20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Wisla Krakow11 September 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Lech Poznan3 September 2026
- W5-2away to Raków Częstochowa30 August 2026
Gornik Zabrze
- D0-0away to Motor Lublin19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Korona Kielce15 September 2026
- W2-1Lech Poznan12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cracovia Krakow6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Raków Częstochowa3 September 2026
What these results say
- Jagiellonia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jagiellonia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Jagiellonia had three goals or more.
- Gornik Zabrze went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 12 |
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze
- 24 April 2026Jagiellonia 1–2 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 26 October 2025Gornik Zabrze 2–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 4 May 2025Jagiellonia 1–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 3 November 2024Gornik Zabrze 0–2 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 2 March 2024Gornik Zabrze 2–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 27 August 2023Jagiellonia 4–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze
Jagiellonia
- N. Prelec3 goals1 assists
Gornik Zabrze
- Peter4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Jagiellonia carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.79 for Gornik Zabrze. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Jagiellonia and 1.31 for Gornik Zabrze. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jagiellonia rate 0.84 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gornik Zabrze rate 0.84 and 0.95.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Gornik Zabrze, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Jagiellonia a 0.7% chance of the title and Gornik Zabrze 27.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jagiellonia the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Jagiellonia against 1.31 for Gornik Zabrze. Jagiellonia's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/0.95 for Gornik Zabrze.