Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Jagiellonia 1-3 Gornik Zabrze.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Jagiellonia, 28% draw, 36% Gornik Zabrze — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Jagiellonia at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 50S. AbramowiczG
- 27Rodrigo ConceiçãoD
- 5Bernardo VitalD
- 4Y. KobayashiD
- 2C. PolakD
- 14H. FinndellM
- 21Sergio LozanoM
- 30O. SowM
- 11Jesús ImazM
- 7K. SzmytM
- 99N. PrelecF
- 10J. AgbonifoF
- 20B. WdowikD
- 3D. StojinovićD
- 32A. ĆirkovićF
- 72K. JóźwiakM
- 19A. KlyngeM
- 44A. KonstantopoulosD
- 23Guilherme Manuel Serrão MontóiaD
- 1M. PerchelG
- 1P. SchulzeG
- 21O. ZmrzlýD
- 26R. JanickiD
- 20Josema SánchezD
- 64E. JanžaD
- 6M. HøjholtM
- 7Y. Ikia DimiM
- 8Paulo BernardoM
- 14J. KubickiM
- 33M. KhlanM
- 23S. LisethF
- 82K. UrbaÅskiM
- 11E. PrekopF
- 19PeterM
- 99T. LoskaG
- 29W. KaniaG
- 27Z. InoussaF
- 34B. DurdovM
- 4P. BochniewiczD
- 2P. WarczakD
Form going into Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze
Jagiellonia
All competitions we cover
- L1-3Legia Warszawa20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Olympiakos Piraeus16 September 2026
- L0-2away to Wisla Krakow11 September 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Lech Poznan3 September 2026
Gornik Zabrze
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Motor Lublin19 September 2026
- W2-1Lech Poznan12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cracovia Krakow6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Raków Częstochowa3 September 2026
- L2-3GKS Katowice30 August 2026
What these results say
- Jagiellonia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jagiellonia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jagiellonia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Jagiellonia | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze
- 24 April 2026Jagiellonia 1–2 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 26 October 2025Gornik Zabrze 2–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 4 May 2025Jagiellonia 1–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 3 November 2024Gornik Zabrze 0–2 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 2 March 2024Gornik Zabrze 2–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze
Jagiellonia
GoalsAssists
- N. Prelec42
Gornik Zabrze
GoalsAssists
- K. UrbaÅski51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gornik Zabrze won 3–1 at Jagiellonia. The goals: Jarosław Kubicki 51' for Gornik Zabrze, Sondre Liseth 58' for Gornik Zabrze, Jesús Imaz 67' for Jagiellonia, Kacper Urbanski 90+14' for Gornik Zabrze. On expected goals it finished 0.61–2.14.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Jagiellonia a 18.5% chance to finish in the top four: 23.4% after a win, 16.2% after a draw, 13.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.8%, 4.7 points lower than before the match.
For Gornik Zabrze the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 77.3% going in: 84.0% after a win, 76.8% after a draw, 72.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 84.0%, 6.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Jagiellonia v Gornik Zabrze has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 35% / 30% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 36% / 28% / 36%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.
- Jagiellonia win36%▲ +1
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Gornik Zabrze win36%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.