10 October 2026, 12:45 UTC

Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego
Referee: Tomasz Marciniak, Poland
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Cracovia Krakow 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Cracovia Krakow, 32% draw, 34% Zaglebie Lubin — fair odds of 2.94, 3.13 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cracovia Krakow at 34%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cracovia Krakow3%Draw94%Zaglebie Lubin3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

27'
⚽Aleks Lawniczak
Amir Al-Ammari
29'
•Gustav Henriksson
49'
53'
Zlatan Alomerović
⚽Ajdin Hasić (pen)
54'
64'
🔁Mateusz Grzybekout: Josip Ćorluka
68'
Josip Ćorluka
70'
David Čolina
sayfallah ltaief
71'
73'
🔁David Čolinaout: Damian Michalski
73'
🔁Filip Szymczakout: Szymon Lyczko
73'
🔁Jakub·Sypekout: Sebastian Kerk
🔁sayfallah ltaiefout: Martin Minchev
74'
🔁Mateusz Klichout: Mohamed Berte
80'
•Ajdin Hasić
90+3'
⚽Ajdin Hasić (pen)
90+8'
90+9'
🔁Filip Kocabaout: Mihael Mlinarić
🔁Ajdin Hasićout: Kamil Glik
90+10'
90+11'
Leszek Ojrzynski
⚽Mohamed Berteassist: Vincent Burlet
90+18'

Match stats — Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin

59%Possession41%
16Shots16
6On target6
5Corners1
3.01xG1.13

Goals against chances

Cracovia Krakow3 from 3.01 xGabout what the chances were worth
Zaglebie Lubin1 from 1.13 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cracovia Krakow 4-2-3-1
  • 13S. MadejskiG
  • 25O. KakabadzeD
  • 4G. HenrikssonD
  • 61B. TraoréD
  • 28V. BurletD
  • 20K. KnapM
  • 6Amir Al AmmariM
  • 14A. HasićM
  • 43M. KlichM
  • 47S. LtaiefM
  • 11L. NordåsF
Substitutes
  • 91A. BobekG
  • 90M. BerteF
  • 77J. ChrapustaG
  • 29W. DejM
  • 15K. GlikD
  • 70D. KameriM
  • 39M. PerkovićD
  • 79D. PiłaD
  • 5B. SelanM
Coach: B. Grzelak
Zaglebie Lubin 5-4-1
  • 33Z. AlomerovićG
  • 13M. GrzybekD
  • 5A. ŁawniczakD
  • 25M. NalepaD
  • 3R. YakubaD
  • 6D. ČolinaD
  • 44M. RegułaM
  • 39F. KocabaM
  • 8D. DąbrowskiM
  • 7J. SypekM
  • 18F. SzymczakF
Substitutes
  • 30D. HładunG
  • 26J. KolanM
  • 37S. KerkM
  • 21Seweryn MarekM
  • 4D. MichalskiD
  • 88M. MlinarićF
  • 31I. OrlikowskiD
  • 11A. WoźniakM
  • 16J. ĆorlukaD
Coach: L. Ojrzynski

Form going into Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin

Cracovia Krakow

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3away to GKS Katowice19 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Wisla Plock13 September 2026
  • L0-1Gornik Zabrze6 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Radomiak Radom29 August 2026
  • W3-2Wieczysta Kraków21 August 2026

Zaglebie Lubin

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2Wisla Plock20 September 2026
  • W2-1GKS Katowice12 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Wieczysta Kraków7 September 2026
  • D0-0Pogon Szczecin29 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Radomiak Radom23 August 2026

What these results say

  • Cracovia Krakow conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Cracovia Krakow failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Cracovia Krakow scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Zaglebie Lubin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Zaglebie Lubin had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Cracovia Krakow143381623-712
6Zaglebie Lubin146531817+123

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin

  • 3 May 2026Zaglebie Lubin 0–0 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 3 November 2025Cracovia Krakow 0–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
  • 24 May 2025Zaglebie Lubin 1–2 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 29 November 2024Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
  • 18 February 2024Zaglebie Lubin 1–1 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin

Cracovia Krakow

GoalsAssists

  • A. Hasić72

Zaglebie Lubin

GoalsAssists

  • M. Reguła50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cracovia Krakow beat Zaglebie Lubin 3–1. The goals: Aleks Lawniczak 27' for Zaglebie Lubin, Ajdin Hasić (penalty) 54' for Cracovia Krakow, Ajdin Hasić (penalty) 90+8' for Cracovia Krakow, Mohamed Berte 90+18' for Cracovia Krakow. On expected goals it finished 3.01–1.13.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cracovia Krakow a 41.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 33.6% after a win, 42.7% after a draw, 46.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.6%, 7.6 points lower than before the match.

For Zaglebie Lubin the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 10.5% going in: 13.7% after a win, 9.4% after a draw, 7.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.3%, 3.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.