Cracovia Krakow
vs
Zaglebie Lubin
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Cracovia Krakow 1–0 Zaglebie Lubin
The model makes it 34% Cracovia Krakow, 32% draw, 34% Zaglebie Lubin — fair odds of 2.94, 3.13 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Cracovia Krakow 1.01, Zaglebie Lubin 1.04.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cracovia Krakow at 34% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin
Cracovia Krakow
- L2-3away to GKS Katowice19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Wisla Plock13 September 2026
- L0-1Gornik Zabrze6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Radomiak Radom29 August 2026
- W3-2Wieczysta Kraków21 August 2026
Zaglebie Lubin
- L0-2Wisla Plock20 September 2026
- W3-2away to Raków Częstochowa15 September 2026
- W2-1GKS Katowice12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Wieczysta Kraków7 September 2026
- D0-0Pogon Szczecin29 August 2026
What these results say
- Cracovia Krakow conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cracovia Krakow failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cracovia Krakow scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zaglebie Lubin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Cracovia Krakow | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 7 | Zaglebie Lubin | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin
- 3 May 2026Zaglebie Lubin 0–0 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 3 November 2025Cracovia Krakow 0–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 24 May 2025Zaglebie Lubin 1–2 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 29 November 2024Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 18 February 2024Zaglebie Lubin 1–1 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 2 November 2023Cracovia Krakow 1–0 Zaglebie LubinCup
Leading scorers: Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin
Cracovia Krakow
- A. Hasić3 goals2 assists
Zaglebie Lubin
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Cracovia Krakow carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.63 for Zaglebie Lubin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.01 goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.04 for Zaglebie Lubin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cracovia Krakow rate 0.60 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zaglebie Lubin rate 0.63 and 1.02.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Zaglebie Lubin, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cracovia Krakow a 0% chance of the title and Zaglebie Lubin 0.8%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cracovia Krakow the highest probability at 34%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow against 1.04 for Zaglebie Lubin. Cracovia Krakow's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.02 for Zaglebie Lubin.