Slask Wroclaw
vs
Lech Poznan
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Slask Wroclaw 1–2 Lech Poznan
The model makes it 28% Slask Wroclaw, 27% draw, 45% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Slask Wroclaw 1.24, Lech Poznan 1.90.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lech Poznan at 45% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan
Slask Wroclaw
- L1-2away to Wisla Krakow18 September 2026
- L1-2Korona Kielce12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Jagiellonia6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Legia Warszawa28 August 2026
- D3-3Widzew Łódź22 August 2026
Lech Poznan
- W5-1Radomiak Radom20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Gornik Zabrze12 September 2026
- W1-0Raków Częstochowa6 September 2026
- W2-1Jagiellonia3 September 2026
- W3-2away to Widzew Łódź30 August 2026
What these results say
- Slask Wroclaw did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Slask Wroclaw scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Slask Wroclaw conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Slask Wroclaw | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 6 |
| 3 | Lech Poznan | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan
- 29 March 2025Slask Wroclaw 3–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 22 September 2024Lech Poznan 1–0 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 24 February 2024Lech Poznan 0–0 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 20 August 2023Slask Wroclaw 3–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 26 February 2023Slask Wroclaw 2–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 19 October 2022Lech Poznan 1–3 Slask WroclawCup
Leading scorers: Slask Wroclaw and Lech Poznan
Slask Wroclaw
- P. Samiec-Talar4 goals3 assists
Lech Poznan
- A. Sayyadmanesh5 goals
- Pablo Rodríguez3 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Slask Wroclaw carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.87 for Lech Poznan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.90 for Lech Poznan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Slask Wroclaw rate 0.74 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lech Poznan rate 1.06 and 1.01.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Slask Wroclaw a 0% chance of the title and Lech Poznan 23.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lech Poznan the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw against 1.9 for Lech Poznan. Slask Wroclaw's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/1.01 for Lech Poznan.