Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Slask Wroclaw 1-4 Lech Poznan.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Slask Wroclaw, 25% draw, 49% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 3.85, 4.00 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Lech Poznan at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1K. NiemczyckiG
- 33E. MatsenkoD
- 5L. BaD
- 44M. MalecD
- 21A. Timossi AnderssonM
- 17K. LinettyM
- 20G. TomasiewiczM
- 8Marc LlinaresM
- 7P. Samiec-TalarM
- 11L. MarjanacF
- 19P. BanaszakF
- 15J. YriarteM
- 2D. SzalaD
- 25M. SzromnikG
- 88A. CiuckaM
- 10M. DembéléF
- 4M. DijakovicD
- 9Ieltsin CamõesF
- 27Jan JurčecD
- 77E. ShabaniM
- 1M. LisG
- 2Joel PereiraD
- 72M. SkrzypczakD
- 27W. MońkaD
- 15M. GurgulD
- 20R. GumnyM
- 22R. MurawskiM
- 21Pablo RodríguezM
- 14L. BengtssonM
- 9M. IshakF
- 24F. JagiełłoF
- 5G. BerggrenM
- 11D. HåkansM
- 43A. KozubalM
- 77L. PalmaM
- 33M. PruchniewskiG
- 10P. WålemarkM
- 59T. YegbeD
- 7Y. AgneroF
- 54K. JakóbczykF
Form going into Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan
Slask Wroclaw
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Wisla Krakow18 September 2026
- L1-2Korona Kielce12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Jagiellonia6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Legia Warszawa28 August 2026
- D3-3Widzew Łódź22 August 2026
Lech Poznan
All competitions we cover
- W5-1Radomiak Radom20 September 2026
- L0-4away to Crystal Palace17 September 2026
- L1-2away to Gornik Zabrze12 September 2026
- W1-0Raków Częstochowa6 September 2026
- W2-1Jagiellonia3 September 2026
What these results say
- Slask Wroclaw did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Slask Wroclaw scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Slask Wroclaw conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lech Poznan had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 10 |
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 13 | +21 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan
- 29 March 2025Slask Wroclaw 3–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 22 September 2024Lech Poznan 1–0 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 24 February 2024Lech Poznan 0–0 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 20 August 2023Slask Wroclaw 3–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 26 February 2023Slask Wroclaw 2–1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Slask Wroclaw and Lech Poznan
Slask Wroclaw
GoalsAssists
- P. Banaszak50
Lech Poznan
GoalsAssists
- P. Wålemark73
- Pablo Rodríguez67
- A. Sayyadmanesh50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lech Poznan won 4–1 at Slask Wroclaw. The model had made a win for Lech Poznan its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Filip Jagiełło 31' for Lech Poznan, Pablo Rodriguez Delgado 50' for Lech Poznan, Patrick Walemark 70' for Lech Poznan, Patrick Walemark 73' for Lech Poznan, Grzegorz Tomasiewicz 90+3' for Slask Wroclaw. On expected goals it finished 0.81–2.06.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Slask Wroclaw a 29.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 23.3% after a win, 29.1% after a draw, 32.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.0%, 2.9 points higher than before the match.
For Lech Poznan the question was the chance to win the league, 41.1% going in: 45.2% after a win, 37.7% after a draw, 35.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 45.2%, 4.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Slask Wroclaw v Lech Poznan has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 28% / 27% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 26% / 25% / 49%: the biggest move is Lech Poznan's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Slask Wroclaw win26%▼ −2
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Lech Poznan win49%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.