West Brom
vs
QPR
Championship prediction & result
Final score: West Brom 1-1 QPR.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% West Brom, 29% draw, 30% QPR — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: West Brom 1.50, QPR 1.11.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: West Brom vs QPR
Has the model earned this number?
It puts West Brom at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — West Brom vs QPR
Line-ups
- 1M. O’LearyG
- 4C. StylesD
- 3N. PhillipsD
- 2C. MephamD
- 22C. TownsendD
- 20R. NzingoulaM
- 8J. MolumbyM
- 15Tobias Christopher CollyerM
- 21I. PriceM
- 7F. MyhreM
- 19A. HeggebøF
- 29Harry WhitwellM
- 6G. CampbellD
- 17O. DiakitéM
- 13M. IngramG
- 11J. MorganF
- 9B. StewartF
- 26K. TundeF
- 31A. MaughanD
- 35M. CrowtherM
- 1P. CharlesG
- 27A. MbengueD
- 5R. EdwardsD
- 6J. Clarke-SalterD
- 19D. CirkinD
- 24N. MadsenM
- 40J. VaraneM
- 17K. PokuM
- 20H. ValeM
- 11P. SmythM
- 16R. BurrellF
- 18G. KamaraM
- 15A. LloydF
- 4L. MorrisonD
- 2K. AdamsonD
- 25Justin Patrick Nnamdi ObikwuF
- 14K. SaitoF
- 23I. AlemayehuM
- 13C. WardG
- 33Leon ScarlettF
Form going into West Brom vs QPR
West Brom
- W1-0away to Derby9 September 2026
- W1-0Watford5 September 2026
- D1-1Charlton2 September 2026
- L1-3away to Middlesbrough29 August 2026
QPR
- D0-0away to Charlton9 September 2026
- L0-1Middlesbrough5 September 2026
- W2-1Cardiff2 September 2026
- W2-1away to Blackburn29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | West Brom | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 14 |
| 5 | QPR | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: West Brom vs QPR
- 12 September 2026West Brom 1–1 QPRChampionship
- 29 December 2025West Brom 2–1 QPRChampionship
- 6 December 2025QPR 3–1 West BromChampionship
- 8 March 2025West Brom 1–0 QPRChampionship
- 10 August 2024QPR 1–3 West BromChampionship
- 6 March 2024QPR 2–2 West BromChampionship
Leading scorers: West Brom and QPR
West Brom
- J. Morgan3 goals3 assists
QPR
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.50 goals for West Brom and 1.11 for QPR; the game produced 1 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Chris Mepham 38' (QPR), Callum Styles 41' (West Brom).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives West Brom the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.5 expected goals for West Brom against 1.11 for QPR. West Brom's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.25 for QPR.