Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
vs
CFR 1907 Cluj
Liga I prediction & result
Final score: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3-1 CFR 1907 Cluj.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe, 26% draw, 25% CFR 1907 Cluj — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2.17, CFR 1907 Cluj 1.18.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs CFR 1907 Cluj
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at 49% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs CFR 1907 Cluj
Line-ups
- 91D. LazarG
- 2CascardoD
- 31L. RoseD
- 4S. KaramokoD
- 3Fábio ViannaD
- 17D. AndreiM
- 6N. PăunM
- 7R. SilaghiM
- 20Nacho HerasF
- 88C. DavordzieF
- 23Hunor BatzulaF
- 5B. VătăjeluD
- 28V. DaguinM
- 27Raul CîmpeanF
- 9B. CmiljanićF
- 77A. AganovićM
- 21A. DobrosavleviciD
- 19G. GhimfușM
- 33Roland NiczulyG
- 30Á. NistorM
- 31O. VâlceanuG
- 47C. BraunD
- 21C. IgnatD
- 14Simão RochaD
- 86V. KunM
- 6O. PerianuM
- 7A. NalićM
- 45M. CamoraM
- 11A. CordeaF
- 9S. DražićF
- 17L. BilibocF
- 19S. BușF
- 1R. GalG
- 3I. GelashviliD
- 41A. KrešićD
- 29B. OmraniF
- 42R. PantalonD
- 77A. SfaitM
- 20A. ȚîrleaD
- 96Á. TordaiG
Form going into Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs CFR 1907 Cluj
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- L0-5away to FC Botosani5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Arges Pitesti29 August 2026
- D1-1Farul Constanta23 August 2026
- D0-0away to Csikszereda15 August 2026
CFR 1907 Cluj
- D0-0Farul Constanta4 September 2026
- W3-2away to Csikszereda29 August 2026
- W1-0FCSB23 August 2026
- L0-3away to Corvinul Hunedoara16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs CFR 1907 Cluj
- 12 September 2026Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3–1 CFR 1907 ClujLiga I
- 1 September 2026Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–3 CFR 1907 ClujCupa României
- 28 February 2025Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–1 CFR 1907 ClujLiga I
- 25 October 2024CFR 1907 Cluj 3–3 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
- 28 April 2024CFR 1907 Cluj 2–1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
- 29 March 2024Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–1 CFR 1907 ClujLiga I
Leading scorers: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and CFR 1907 Cluj
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
CFR 1907 Cluj
- A. Cordea5 goals
- S. Dražić4 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.17 goals for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and 1.18 for CFR 1907 Cluj; the game produced 3 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Andrei Cordea 10' (CFR 1907 Cluj), Boris Cmiljanić 49' (Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe), Lindsay Rose 61' (Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe), Nacho Heras 86' (Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe against 1.18 for CFR 1907 Cluj. Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/2.78 for CFR 1907 Cluj.