Watford vs Stoke City Championship prediction & result
Final score: Watford 1-2 Stoke City.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Watford, 29% draw, 31% Stoke City — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Watford at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Watford vs Stoke City
Line-ups
- 1F. RavagliaG
- 4K. KebenD
- 6M. PollockD
- 3S. CoulibalyD
- 33J. ZemuraD
- 39E. KayembeM
- 5H. KyprianouM
- 7O. MaammaM
- 17Iker BravoM
- 45S. MavididiM
- 20M. DoumbiaF
- 18M. AntonioF
- 26D. BachmannG
- 9L. KjerrumgaardF
- 21Amin NabizadaF
- 23O. TraoréD
- 11R. VataF
- 24S. WalkerG
- 56Albert EamesD
- 1V. JohanssonG
- 16B. WilmotD
- 40M. TalovierovD
- 5L. GrahamD
- 2B. JohnsonM
- 13J. DevennyM
- 27El Hadji Djibril SoumaréM
- 8E. GalbraithM
- 17E. BocatM
- 11L. CisséF
- 7J. McGlynnF
- 23B. GibsonD
- 24J. GriffithsG
- 15G. HirstF
- 42M. ManhoefF
- 4B. PearsonM
- 19T. RigoM
- 9R. BoženíkF
- 21L. BombinoD
- 43F. AndersonD
Form going into Watford vs Stoke City
Watford
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Preston8 September 2026
- L0-1away to West Brom5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Swansea1 September 2026
- D1-1West Ham29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Wrexham22 August 2026
Stoke City
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Cardiff8 September 2026
- W4-0Charlton5 September 2026
- W1-0Norwich1 September 2026
- L1-4away to Wolves29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Southampton22 August 2026
What these results say
- Watford conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Watford failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Watford had two goals or fewer.
- Stoke City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 11 |
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Watford vs Stoke City
- 14 March 2026Stoke City 3–1 WatfordChampionship
- 20 December 2025Watford 1–0 Stoke CityChampionship
- 1 March 2025Stoke City 0–0 WatfordChampionship
- 17 August 2024Watford 3–0 Stoke CityChampionship
- 29 December 2023Watford 1–1 Stoke CityChampionship
The result against the call
Stoke City won 2–1 at Watford. The model had leaned towards a win for Watford at 40% and given a win for Stoke City 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Jack Mcglynn 45+4' for Stoke City, Eric Junior Bocat 57' for Stoke City, Amin Nabizada 90+1' for Watford.
How the call on Watford v Stoke City has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 40% / 29% / 31%: the biggest move is Watford's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Watford win40%▼ −2
- Draw29%=
- Stoke City win31%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.