Swansea
vs
Burnley
Championship prediction & result
Final score: Swansea 3-1 Burnley.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Swansea, 29% draw, 36% Burnley — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Swansea 1.36, Burnley 1.43.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Swansea vs Burnley
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Burnley at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Swansea vs Burnley
Line-ups
- 22L. VigourouxG
- 2J. KeyD
- 5B. CabangoD
- 23S. WelshD
- 14J. TymonD
- 46S. EustáquioM
- 6M. StamenićM
- 8E. JustM
- 7M. WidellM
- 49M. YeoM
- 33A. IdahF
- 1A. FisherG
- 17Gonçalo FrancoM
- 4J. FultonM
- 26F. LissahD
- 30Joseph OkopuF
- 20Tiago ParenteD
- 35RonaldF
- 3J. SeeltD
- 9Z. VipotnikF
- 1M. WeißG
- 22O. SonneD
- 2K. WalkerD
- 44IgorD
- 14C. RobertsD
- 8U. RaghouberM
- 3Max AlleyneM
- 21A. RamseyM
- 29J. LaurentM
- 19L. RamazaniM
- 11Z. AmdouniF
- 9J. VardyF
- 23Lucas PiresD
- 17A. HountondjiF
- 5R. HatateM
- 18H. EkdalD
- 37G. CoudertG
- 30L. CastellF
- 27A. BrojaF
- 15A. AhmedhodžićD
Form going into Swansea vs Burnley
Swansea
- L1-3away to Southampton8 September 2026
- D0-0Wrexham5 September 2026
- W2-0Watford1 September 2026
- W3-0away to Derby29 August 2026
Burnley
- D1-1away to Wrexham8 September 2026
- L1-2Bristol City5 September 2026
- D1-1Middlesbrough2 September 2026
- L1-4away to Norwich29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Swansea | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 14 |
| 24 | Burnley | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Swansea vs Burnley
- 12 September 2026Swansea 3–1 BurnleyChampionship
- 15 March 2025Swansea 0–2 BurnleyChampionship
- 10 November 2024Burnley 1–0 SwanseaChampionship
- 2 January 2023Swansea 1–2 BurnleyChampionship
- 15 October 2022Burnley 4–0 SwanseaChampionship
- 10 February 2018Swansea 1–0 BurnleyPremier League
Leading scorers: Swansea and Burnley
Swansea
- A. Idah3 goals1 assists
- Eom Ji-Sung2 goals2 assists
Burnley
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.36 goals for Swansea and 1.43 for Burnley; the game produced 3 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Adam Idah 13' (Swansea), Moussa Kounfolo Yeo 33' (Swansea), Largie Ramazani 58' (Burnley), Zan Vipotnik 68' (Swansea).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Burnley the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Swansea against 1.43 for Burnley. Swansea's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.1 for Burnley.