Borussia Mönchengladbach
vs
SV Elversberg
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 26% Borussia Mönchengladbach, 26% draw, 48% SV Elversberg — fair odds of 3.85, 3.85 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.16, SV Elversberg 1.65.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV Elversberg
- 22 December 2020SV Elversberg 0–5 Borussia MonchengladbachDFB Pokal
The two sides
Borussia Mönchengladbach carry a model rating of 6.79 against 7.12 for SV Elversberg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.16 goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.65 for SV Elversberg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Borussia Mönchengladbach rate 0.89 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SV Elversberg rate 1.17 and 0.69.
That points to 53% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SV Elversberg the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach against 1.65 for SV Elversberg. Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.17/0.69 for SV Elversberg.