1899 Hoffenheim
vs
Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 41% 1899 Hoffenheim, 25% draw, 34% Borussia Dortmund — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.66, Borussia Dortmund 1.49.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund
- 18 April 20261899 Hoffenheim 2–1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 7 December 2025Borussia Dortmund 2–0 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 26 April 20251899 Hoffenheim 2–3 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 15 December 2024Borussia Dortmund 1–1 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 25 February 2024Borussia Dortmund 2–3 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 1 November 2023Borussia Dortmund 1–0 1899 HoffenheimDFB Pokal
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
1899 Hoffenheim carry a model rating of 6.88 against 6.97 for Borussia Dortmund. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.49 for Borussia Dortmund. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1899 Hoffenheim rate 1.01 in attack and 0.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Borussia Dortmund rate 1.11 and 0.87.
That points to 61% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1899 Hoffenheim the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim against 1.49 for Borussia Dortmund. 1899 Hoffenheim's attack/defence rating is 1.01/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.11/0.87 for Borussia Dortmund.