Bayer Leverkusen
vs
Union Berlin
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 53% Bayer Leverkusen, 21% draw, 26% Union Berlin — fair odds of 1.89, 4.76 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen 2.31, Union Berlin 1.62.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin
- 21 February 2026Union Berlin 1–0 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 4 October 2025Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 Union BerlinBundesliga
- 12 April 2025Bayer Leverkusen 0–0 Union BerlinBundesliga
- 30 November 2024Union Berlin 1–2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 6 April 2024Union Berlin 0–1 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 12 November 2023Bayer Leverkusen 4–0 Union BerlinBundesliga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bayer Leverkusen carry a model rating of 6.99 against 6.95 for Union Berlin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.31 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.62 for Union Berlin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bayer Leverkusen rate 1.33 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Union Berlin rate 1.12 and 0.92.
That points to 75% for over two and a half goals and 73% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bayer Leverkusen the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen against 1.62 for Union Berlin. Bayer Leverkusen's attack/defence rating is 1.33/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.12/0.92 for Union Berlin.