Coritiba
vs
Flamengo
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Coritiba 0–2 Flamengo
The model makes it 19% Coritiba, 24% draw, 57% Flamengo — fair odds of 5.26, 4.17 and 1.75.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Coritiba 0.95, Flamengo 2.02.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Flamengo are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Coritiba's rating is built from 34 Brazilian Serie A matches and Flamengo's from 72, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,101 matches.
Key facts
- Coritiba are 13th on 42 points from 34 games; Flamengo are top on 76 points from 34 games — Serie A.
- Coritiba have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Internacional.
- Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Gremio.
- Last 6 meetings: Flamengo 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 30 May 2026, ended Flamengo 3–0 Coritiba.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Coritiba vs Flamengo
Has the model earned this number?
Flamengo at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Coritiba vs Flamengo
Coritiba
Serie A
- L0-1away to Internacional4 November 2026
- W2-0Vitoria31 October 2026
- L0-1Gremio26 October 2026
- L0-1away to Atletico Mineiro17 October 2026
- D1-1Botafogo12 October 2026
Flamengo
Serie A
- W3-1Gremio4 November 2026
- W4-1away to Vasco da Gama29 October 2026
- W3-2Atletico Mineiro26 October 2026
- W3-0away to Bahia18 October 2026
- W1-0Fluminense11 October 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Coritiba had two goals or fewer.
- Coritiba failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Coritiba conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Flamengo won every one of these 5 matches.
- Flamengo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Flamengo had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 |
| 1 | Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 71 | 29 | +42 | 76 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Coritiba vs Flamengo
- 30 May 2026Flamengo 3–0 CoritibaSerie A
- 20 August 2023Coritiba 2–3 FlamengoSerie A
- 16 April 2023Flamengo 3–0 CoritibaSerie A
- 6 November 2022Coritiba 1–0 FlamengoSerie A
- 16 July 2022Flamengo 2–0 CoritibaSerie A
- 17 June 2021Flamengo 2–0 CoritibaCopa Do Brasil
Leading scorers: Coritiba and Flamengo
Coritiba
GoalsAssists
- Pedro Rocha91
- Breno Lopes81
Flamengo
GoalsAssists
- Pedro206
- Samuel Lino129
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Coritiba a 0% chance of the title and Flamengo 79.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Flamengo the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Coritiba against 2.02 for Flamengo. Coritiba's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.34/0.82 for Flamengo.
How the model reaches 57% for Flamengo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Flamengo to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, Coritiba's ratings add 13 points and Flamengo's ratings add 16 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage28%−8
- Coritiba's ratings41%+13
- Flamengo's ratings57%+16
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Coritiba at home · Flamengo away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Coritiba 34, Flamengo 34.
Coritiba score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Flamengo have let in 4 there.
Flamengo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Coritiba have let in 14 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Coritiba
- at Palmeiras3 Dec · Serie Awin 9%
Flamengo
- vs Chapecoense3 Dec · Serie Awin 84%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.