6 September 2026, 11:30 UTC

SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Heidenheim 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
Full time0 – 1

Final score: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-1 1. FC Heidenheim.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 29% draw, 40% 1. FC Heidenheim — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts 1. FC Heidenheim at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

SpVgg Greuther Fürth0%Draw4%1. FC Heidenheim96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
⚽B. Zivzivadzeassist: M. Costly
🔁D. Srbenyout: O. Sillah
64'
🔁F. Ademiout: Jordan
65'
Krisztián Keresztes
66'
73'
🔁O. Mhamdiout: J. Niehues
73'
🔁M. Honsakout: C. Conteh
🔁J. Dehmout: L. Reich
79'
🔁S. Banseout: A. Keller
79'
🔁K. Keresztesout: H. Blank
84'
85'
🔁B. Zivzivadzeout: M. Zrilic
85'
🔁A. Vogtout: M. Breunig
90+4'
Jan Schöppner
90+1'
🔁out: T. Siersleben

Match stats — SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Heidenheim

68%Possession32%
14Shots6
5On target5
7Corners2
0.6xG0.88

Goals against chances

SpVgg Greuther Fürth0 from 0.60 xGless than the chances were worth
1. FC Heidenheim1 from 0.88 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-4-2
  • 1F. HellsternG
  • 23J. DehmD
  • 22J. HeuerD
  • 29K. KeresztesD
  • 27L. ItterD
  • 37F. AdemiM
  • 13P. WillM
  • 6S. BanseM
  • 10O. PohlmannM
  • 30F. KlausF
  • 7D. SrbenyF
Substitutes
  • 39C. OrtagG
  • 2L. ReichD
  • 34H. BlankD
  • 4E. BenkaraD
  • 28D. ArifiM
  • 11A. KellerM
  • 21M. WallentowitzM
  • 9JordanF
  • 42O. SillahF
Coach: Heiko Vogel
1. FC Heidenheim 4-4-2
  • 33T. DahneG
  • 2M. BuschD
  • 6P. MainkaD
  • 19J. FohrenbachD
  • 27M. HeuleD
  • 22O. MhamdiM
  • 17M. HonsakM
  • 3J. SchoppnerM
  • 24M. CostlyM
  • 18A. VogtF
  • 11B. ZivzivadzeF
Substitutes
  • 1F. FellerG
  • 4T. SierslebenD
  • 23L. PaqaradaD
  • 16J. NiehuesM
  • 41M. ZrilicM
  • 38Y. WagnerF
  • 10C. ContehF
  • 14M. BreunigF
  • 8P. HennrichM
Coach: Frank Schmidt

Form going into SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Heidenheim

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

  • W4-3away to Energie Cottbus29 August 2026

1. FC Heidenheim

  • W5-3Dynamo Dresden29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15SpVgg Greuther Fürth71331013-36
31. FC Heidenheim74211412+214

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Heidenheim

  • 9 October 20251. FC Heidenheim 0–1 SpVgg Greuther FürthFriendlies Clubs
  • 12 October 2023FC Heidenheim 0–1 SpVgg Greuther FürthFriendlies Clubs
  • 28 April 2023SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0–2 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
  • 23 October 2022FC Heidenheim 3–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
  • 3 April 2021FC Heidenheim 0–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
  • 5 December 2020SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0–1 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Heidenheim

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

GoalsAssists

  • F. Klaus51

1. FC Heidenheim

GoalsAssists

  • J. Schöppner30

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.