Hertha BSC
vs
1. FC Magdeburg
2. Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 55% Hertha BSC, 23% draw, 22% 1. FC Magdeburg — fair odds of 1.82, 4.35 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Hertha BSC 1.93, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.13.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Hertha BSC
- W4-11. FC Heidenheim15 August 2026
- W1-0away to VfL Bochum7 August 2026
1. FC Magdeburg
- W3-0away to VfL Osnabrück15 August 2026
- L1-6Eintracht Braunschweig8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Hertha BSC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Hertha BSC
- S. Grønning2 goals
1. FC Magdeburg
- A. Nollenberger2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hertha BSC carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.31 for 1. FC Magdeburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Hertha BSC W-W; 1. FC Magdeburg L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.93 goals for Hertha BSC and 1.13 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hertha BSC rate 0.61 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; 1. FC Magdeburg rate 0.57 and 1.67.
That points to 59% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hertha BSC the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Hertha BSC against 1.13 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Hertha BSC's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.67 for 1. FC Magdeburg.