Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Hertha BSC 2-1 1. FC Magdeburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Hertha BSC, 28% draw, 30% 1. FC Magdeburg — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hertha BSC at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 35M. GersbeckG
- 2J. EitschbergerD
- 44L. GechterD
- 27N. KolbeD
- 22M. PedersenD
- 30P. SeguinM
- 8K. SessaM
- 23J. ThorsteinssonM
- 33S. GouramM
- 7J. BrekaloM
- 17S. GronningF
- 43T. GollerG
- 31M. DardaiD
- 19O. AdewumiF
- 41P. KlemensD
- 47S. TelibM
- 9G. NilssonF
- 18L. SchulerF
- 20F. Alfa-RuprechtF
- 28J. NdiF
- 1D. ReimannG
- 7H. BockhornD
- 5T. MullerD
- 3A. Garcia MacNultyD
- 17A. NollenbergerD
- 38L. HyrylainenM
- 10M. KwartengM
- 21F. MichelM
- 8E. IyohaF
- 22M. ZukowskiF
- 23B. AtikF
- 30N. KruthG
- 6P. JaeckelD
- 28P. NadjombeD
- 11F. ChavezM
- 33L. MergnerM
- 26T. MuselM
- 9R. SimicF
- 29R. TachieF
- 35M. BaarsF
Form going into Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg
Hertha BSC
- W5-3away to Eintracht Braunschweig28 August 2026
1. FC Magdeburg
- W2-0Holstein Kiel30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 21 |
| 4 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg
- 3 May 20261. FC Magdeburg 1–0 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
- 7 December 2025Hertha BSC 0–2 1. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
- 25 April 2025Hertha BSC 1–1 1. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
- 29 November 20241. FC Magdeburg 1–3 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
- 16 February 2024Hertha Berlin 3–2 FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
- 2 September 2023FC Magdeburg 6–4 Hertha Berlin2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Hertha BSC and 1. FC Magdeburg
Hertha BSC
GoalsAssists
- J. Brekalo45
- J. Þorsteinsson31
- O. Adewumi30
1. FC Magdeburg
GoalsAssists
- E. Iyoha50
- A. Nollenberger31
- M. Żukowski30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.