Villarreal
vs
Deportivo La Coruna
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 80% Villarreal, 13% draw, 7% Deportivo La Coruna — fair odds of 1.25, 7.69 and 14.29. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Villarreal 2.80, Deportivo La Coruna 0.73.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Villarreal
- D2-2away to Racing Santander16 August 2026
Deportivo La Coruna
- D1-1Elche17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna
- 12 May 2018Deportivo La Coruna 2–4 VillarrealLa Liga
- 7 January 2018Villarreal 1–1 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 14 May 2017Villarreal 0–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 14 January 2017Deportivo La Coruna 0–0 VillarrealLa Liga
- 8 May 2016Villarreal 0–2 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 3 January 2016Deportivo La Coruna 1–2 VillarrealLa Liga
Leading scorers
Villarreal
- N. Pépé1 goals
Deportivo La Coruna
- P. Aubameyang1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Villarreal carry a model rating of 6.96 against 6.45 for Deportivo La Coruna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Villarreal D; Deportivo La Coruna D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.80 goals for Villarreal and 0.73 for Deportivo La Coruna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Villarreal rate 1.13 in attack and 0.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo La Coruna rate 0.58 and 1.31.
That points to 68% for over two and a half goals and 49% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (11%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Villarreal the highest probability at 80%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.8 expected goals for Villarreal against 0.73 for Deportivo La Coruna. Villarreal's attack/defence rating is 1.13/0.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.31 for Deportivo La Coruna.