Rayo Vallecano
vs
Racing Santander
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 31% Rayo Vallecano, 21% draw, 48% Racing Santander — fair odds of 3.23, 4.76 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Rayo Vallecano 1.72, Racing Santander 2.16.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Rayo Vallecano
- D1-1Alaves20 August 2026
- L1-2away to Sevilla15 August 2026
Racing Santander
- D2-2Villarreal16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
| 6 | Racing Santander | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander
- 20 July 2020Racing Santander 1–2 Rayo VallecanoSegunda División
- 13 September 2019Rayo Vallecano 2–0 Racing SantanderSegunda División
- 3 March 2012Rayo Vallecano 4–2 Racing SantanderLa Liga
- 1 October 2011Racing Santander 1–1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
Leading scorers
Rayo Vallecano
- Álvaro García1 goals
- Sergio Camello1 goals
Racing Santander
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Rayo Vallecano carry a model rating of 6.94 against 7.2 for Racing Santander. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Rayo Vallecano L-D; Racing Santander D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 2.16 for Racing Santander. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rayo Vallecano rate 1.20 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Racing Santander rate 1.53 and 0.76.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 73% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Racing Santander the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano against 2.16 for Racing Santander. Rayo Vallecano's attack/defence rating is 1.2/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.53/0.76 for Racing Santander.