CRB
vs
Botafogo SP
Serie B prediction
Our model says: CRB 2–1 Botafogo SP
The model makes it 48% CRB, 26% draw, 26% Botafogo SP — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: CRB 2.10, Botafogo SP 1.20.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- CRB are 7th on 48 points from 31 games; Botafogo SP are 16th on 35 points from 31 games — Serie B.
- CRB have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to São Bernardo.
- Botafogo SP have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Vila Nova.
- Last 6 meetings: CRB 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 30 June 2026, ended Botafogo SP 0–1 CRB.
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: CRB vs Botafogo SP
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CRB at 48% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into CRB vs Botafogo SP
CRB
- L1-3away to São Bernardo2 October 2026
- W3-0Cuiaba27 September 2026
- L0-1away to Ponte Preta20 September 2026
- W2-1Sport Recife16 September 2026
- L0-3away to Operario-PR9 September 2026
Botafogo SP
- L0-1Vila Nova3 October 2026
- W2-0Ponte Preta29 September 2026
- D1-1away to Athletic Club MG19 September 2026
- L1-3Goias14 September 2026
- L1-3Novorizontino9 September 2026
What these results say
- CRB conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for CRB had three goals or more.
- Botafogo SP failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Botafogo SP scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Botafogo SP conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | CRB | 31 | 14 | 6 | 11 | 46 | 44 | +2 | 48 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: CRB vs Botafogo SP
- 30 June 2026Botafogo SP 0–1 CRBSerie B
- 24 September 2025CRB 3–2 Botafogo SPSerie B
- 26 May 2025Botafogo SP 2–1 CRBSerie B
- 25 September 2024Botafogo SP 0–0 CRBSerie B
- 17 July 2024CRB 4–1 Botafogo SPSerie B
- 5 August 2023CRB 0–0 Botafogo SPSerie B
Leading scorers: CRB and Botafogo SP
CRB
- Mikael15 goals4 assists
- Dadá Belmonte5 goals6 assists
- Crystopher5 goals5 assists
Botafogo SP
- Everton Morelli8 goals2 assists
- Hygor7 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
CRB carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.25 for Botafogo SP. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.10 goals for CRB and 1.20 for Botafogo SP. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CRB rate 0.72 in attack and 1.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Botafogo SP rate 0.54 and 1.79.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives CRB a 0.1% chance of the title and Botafogo SP 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CRB the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.10 expected goals for CRB against 1.20 for Botafogo SP. CRB's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.79 for Botafogo SP.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
CRB at home · Botafogo SP away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: CRB 31, Botafogo SP 31.
CRB score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Botafogo SP have let in 2 there.
Botafogo SP score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); CRB have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
CRB
- vs Londrina24 Oct · Serie Bwin 48%
- at Goias31 Oct · Serie Bwin 35%
- at Nautico Recife7 Nov · Serie Bwin 32%
Botafogo SP
- at Avai24 Oct · Serie Bwin 31%
- vs Sport Recife31 Oct · Serie Bwin 32%
- vs Londrina7 Nov · Serie Bwin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.