Vila Nova
vs
Novorizontino
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Vila Nova 1–2 Novorizontino
The model makes it 35% Vila Nova, 29% draw, 36% Novorizontino — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Vila Nova 1.37, Novorizontino 1.39.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Vila Nova and Novorizontino are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Vila Nova are top on 57 points from 31 games; Novorizontino are 3rd on 54 points from 31 games — Serie B.
- Vila Nova are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Botafogo SP.
- Novorizontino have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Goias.
- Last 6 meetings: Novorizontino 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 June 2026, ended Novorizontino 2–1 Vila Nova.
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Vila Nova vs Novorizontino
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Novorizontino at 36% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Vila Nova vs Novorizontino
Vila Nova
- W1-0away to Botafogo SP3 October 2026
- W2-0Londrina25 September 2026
- W1-0America Mineiro18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Avai15 September 2026
- W2-0Goias10 September 2026
Novorizontino
- W3-0Goias2 October 2026
- D0-0São Bernardo25 September 2026
- L1-2away to Ceara18 September 2026
- D1-1Cuiaba13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Botafogo SP9 September 2026
What these results say
- Vila Nova went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Vila Nova scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Vila Nova had two goals or fewer.
- Novorizontino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 31 | 17 | 6 | 8 | 44 | 31 | +13 | 57 |
| 3 | Novorizontino | 31 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 52 | 27 | +25 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Vila Nova vs Novorizontino
- 26 June 2026Novorizontino 2–1 Vila NovaSerie B
- 28 September 2025Novorizontino 1–1 Vila NovaSerie B
- 30 May 2025Vila Nova 0–1 NovorizontinoSerie B
- 31 August 2024Novorizontino 2–0 Vila NovaSerie B
- 14 May 2024Vila Nova 2–1 NovorizontinoSerie B
- 30 July 2023Novorizontino 3–1 Vila NovaSerie B
Leading scorers: Vila Nova and Novorizontino
Vila Nova
- André Luís8 goals2 assists
- Janderson6 goals7 assists
Novorizontino
- Robson15 goals5 assists
- Romulo9 goals8 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Vila Nova carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.6 for Novorizontino. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Vila Nova and 1.39 for Novorizontino. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vila Nova rate 0.65 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Novorizontino rate 0.79 and 1.30.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Vila Nova, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vila Nova a 18.4% chance of the title and Novorizontino 22.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Novorizontino the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Vila Nova against 1.39 for Novorizontino. Vila Nova's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.3 for Novorizontino.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Vila Nova at home · Novorizontino away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Vila Nova 31, Novorizontino 31.
Vila Nova score most often in the 61–75 minute window (12 goals); Novorizontino have let in 2 there.
Novorizontino score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Vila Nova have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Vila Nova
- at São Bernardo24 Oct · Serie Bwin 30%
- vs Juventude31 Oct · Serie Bwin 37%
- vs Criciuma7 Nov · Serie Bwin 42%
Novorizontino
- at Atletico Goianiense24 Oct · Serie Bwin 33%
- vs Operario-PR31 Oct · Serie Bwin 53%
- vs Fortaleza EC7 Nov · Serie Bwin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.