Avai
vs
Athletic Club MG
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Avai 2–1 Athletic Club MG
The model makes it 37% Avai, 29% draw, 34% Athletic Club MG — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Avai 1.49, Athletic Club MG 1.40.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Avai and Athletic Club MG are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Avai are 17th on 30 points from 31 games; Athletic Club MG are 14th on 42 points from 31 games — Serie B.
- Avai have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Ceara.
- Athletic Club MG are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Sport Recife.
- Last 3 meetings: Athletic Club MG 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 June 2026, ended Athletic Club MG 1–0 Avai.
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Avai vs Athletic Club MG
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Avai at 37% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Avai vs Athletic Club MG
Avai
- L0-1Ceara3 October 2026
- L0-3away to Criciuma27 September 2026
- L1-2away to Goias20 September 2026
- D1-1Vila Nova15 September 2026
- L0-1away to Fortaleza EC9 September 2026
Athletic Club MG
- L1-2Sport Recife1 October 2026
- D2-2away to Fortaleza EC27 September 2026
- D1-1Botafogo SP19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Juventude13 September 2026
- L0-3away to Cuiaba8 September 2026
What these results say
- Avai did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Avai conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Athletic Club MG failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Athletic Club MG scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Athletic Club MG conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Avai | 31 | 8 | 6 | 17 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 30 |
| 14 | Athletic Club MG | 31 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 37 | 35 | +2 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Avai vs Athletic Club MG
- 28 June 2026Athletic Club MG 1–0 AvaiSerie B
- 1 November 2025Avai 2–1 Athletic Club MGSerie B
- 14 July 2025Athletic Club MG 4–0 AvaiSerie B
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Avai carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.35 for Athletic Club MG. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Avai and 1.40 for Athletic Club MG. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Avai rate 0.53 in attack and 1.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Athletic Club MG rate 0.64 and 1.73.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Athletic Club MG, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Avai the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Avai against 1.40 for Athletic Club MG. Avai's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.73 for Athletic Club MG.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Avai at home · Athletic Club MG away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Avai 31, Athletic Club MG 31.
Avai score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Athletic Club MG have let in 8 there.
Athletic Club MG score most often in the 61–75 minute window (9 goals); Avai have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Avai
- vs Botafogo SP24 Oct · Serie Bwin 40%
- at Nautico Recife31 Oct · Serie Bwin 26%
- vs São Bernardo7 Nov · Serie Bwin 33%
Athletic Club MG
- at Operario-PR24 Oct · Serie Bwin 30%
- vs Ceara31 Oct · Serie Bwin 32%
- vs Atletico Goianiense7 Nov · Serie Bwin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.