Baranovichi
vs
Naftan
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Baranovichi 2–1 Naftan
The model makes it 51% Baranovichi, 24% draw, 25% Naftan — fair odds of 1.96, 4.17 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Baranovichi 2.10, Naftan 1.32.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Baranovichi are 11th on 25 points from 25 games; Naftan are 15th on 17 points from 24 games — Premier League.
- Baranovichi are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to FC Vitebsk.
- Naftan are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Belshina.
- Last 6 meetings: Naftan 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 19 June 2026, ended Naftan 1–0 Baranovichi.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Baranovichi vs Naftan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Baranovichi at 51% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Baranovichi vs Naftan
Baranovichi
- L0-1FC Vitebsk17 October 2026
- L0-3away to Neman10 October 2026
- L0-2FC Gomel20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Arsenal Dzerzhinsk12 September 2026
- W2-1FC Dnepr Mogilev6 September 2026
Naftan
- W4-1Belshina10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Slavia Mozyr19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bate Borisov13 September 2026
- L0-3FC Minsk6 September 2026
- L1-5away to Dinamo Minsk2 September 2026
What these results say
- Baranovichi failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Baranovichi failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Baranovichi conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Naftan scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Naftan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Naftan had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Baranovichi | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 24 | 42 | -18 | 25 |
| 15 | Naftan | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 24 | 55 | -31 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Baranovichi
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 8% today
Naftan
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 99% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Baranovichi vs Naftan
- 19 June 2026Naftan 1–0 BaranovichiPremier League
- 12 November 2022Naftan 2–1 Baranovichi1. Division
- 24 July 2022Baranovichi 0–4 Naftan1. Division
- 19 September 2021Naftan 5–1 Baranovichi1. Division
- 4 July 2021Baranovichi 1–6 Naftan1. Division
- 17 April 2021Naftan 2–0 Baranovichi1. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Baranovichi carry a model rating of 5.99 against 5.93 for Naftan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.10 goals for Baranovichi and 1.32 for Naftan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Baranovichi rate 0.41 in attack and 2.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Naftan rate 0.48 and 3.15.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Baranovichi the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Baranovichi against 1.32 for Naftan. Baranovichi's attack/defence rating is 0.41/2.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/3.15 for Naftan.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Baranovichi at home · Naftan away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Baranovichi 25, Naftan 24.
Baranovichi score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Naftan have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Baranovichi
- at Slavia Mozyr7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 23%
- vs Belshina21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 44%
- at Torpedo Zhodino28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 23%
Naftan
- vs ML Vitebsk7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 15%
- at Dinamo Brest21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 11%
- vs Dinamo Minsk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 16%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.