30 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

Viking vs Aalesund Eliteserien prediction & result

Lyse Arena, Stavanger
Full time2 1

Final score: Viking 2-1 Aalesund.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Viking, 28% draw, 28% Aalesund — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Viking at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Viking5%Draw92%Aalesund3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
U. Charlesassist: E. Osenbroch
33'
Mathias Christensen
40'
Ólafur Guðmundsson
45+2'
🔁H. Hammerout: D. Johannsson
🔁J. Bellout: S. Kvia-Egeskog
62'
🔁A. Cosicout: R. Postema
62'
🔁H. J. Haugenout: N. Fuglestad
71'
72'
Marcus Haagensen Reed
S. Kvia-Egeskogassist: P. Christiansen
73'
81'
🔁E. Osenbrochout: E. Myrlid
🔁V. Auklendout: V. Vevatne
83'
🔁T. Moiout: H. Heggheim
83'
85'
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson
Kristoffer Askildsen
90+1'
S. Kvia-Egeskogassist: Z. Tripic
90'

Match stats — Viking vs Aalesund

56%Possession44%
22Shots9
6On target4
14Corners3
2.42xG0.87

Goals against chances

Viking2 from 2.42 xGabout what the chances were worth
Aalesund1 from 0.87 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Viking 4-1-4-1
  • 30L. BelkoG
  • 2H. J. HaugenD
  • 6G. StensnessD
  • 27J. DalandD
  • 24V. AuklendD
  • 8J. BellM
  • 10Z. TripicM
  • 29T. MoiM
  • 7K. AskildsenM
  • 19A. CosicM
  • 20P. ChristiansenF
Substitutes
  • 1A. OstboG
  • 3V. VevatneD
  • 5H. HeggheimD
  • 16R. AlteM
  • 33J. HansenM
  • 15O. VistedM
  • 26S. Kvia-EgeskogM
  • 23N. FuglestadF
  • 11R. PostemaF
Coach: Bjarte Aarsheim
Aalesund 5-3-2
  • 1L. PodlechG
  • 7K. NessoD
  • 2M. AndresenD
  • 28D. MbackeD
  • 3O. GudmundssonD
  • 14U. CharlesD
  • 21M. Christensen
  • 18E. HagenM
  • 6H. Hammer
  • 27M. ReedF
  • 15E. OsenbrochF
Substitutes
  • 26T. LarsenG
  • 41P. E. StorasG
  • 25U. Syversen
  • 4S. HaramD
  • 16J. Orsahl
  • 11D. JohannssonM
  • 22E. EngqvistD
  • 17E. MyrlidF
Coach: Kjetil-Andre Rekdal

Form going into Viking vs Aalesund

Viking

  • L1-2away to Rosenborg14 August 2026
  • W2-1Sarpsborg 08 FF8 August 2026

Aalesund

  • D5-5Valerenga16 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Ham-Kam9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Viking2015235120+3147
15Aalesund203983145-1418

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Viking vs Aalesund

  • 30 August 2026Viking 2–1 AalesundEliteserien
  • 26 July 2026Aalesund 1–1 VikingEliteserien
  • 18 March 2026Viking 1–2 AalesundNM Cupen
  • 25 June 2025Aalesund 0–1 VikingNM Cupen
  • 26 November 2023Aalesund 0–4 VikingEliteserien
  • 24 July 2023Viking 3–1 AalesundEliteserien

Leading scorers: Viking and Aalesund

Viking

  • P. Christiansen10 goals6 assists
  • S. Kvia-Egeskog8 goals2 assists
  • Z. Tripić6 goals18 assists

Aalesund

  • M. Christensen7 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.