Viking vs Aalesund Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Viking 2-1 Aalesund.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Viking, 28% draw, 28% Aalesund — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Viking at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Viking vs Aalesund
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30L. BelkoG
- 2H. J. HaugenD
- 6G. StensnessD
- 27J. DalandD
- 24V. AuklendD
- 8J. BellM
- 10Z. TripicM
- 29T. MoiM
- 7K. AskildsenM
- 19A. CosicM
- 20P. ChristiansenF
- 1A. OstboG
- 3V. VevatneD
- 5H. HeggheimD
- 16R. AlteM
- 33J. HansenM
- 15O. VistedM
- 26S. Kvia-EgeskogM
- 23N. FuglestadF
- 11R. PostemaF
- 1L. PodlechG
- 7K. NessoD
- 2M. AndresenD
- 28D. MbackeD
- 3O. GudmundssonD
- 14U. CharlesD
- 21M. Christensen
- 18E. HagenM
- 6H. Hammer
- 27M. ReedF
- 15E. OsenbrochF
- 26T. LarsenG
- 41P. E. StorasG
- 25U. Syversen
- 4S. HaramD
- 16J. Orsahl
- 11D. JohannssonM
- 22E. EngqvistD
- 17E. MyrlidF
Form going into Viking vs Aalesund
Viking
- L1-2away to Rosenborg14 August 2026
- W2-1Sarpsborg 08 FF8 August 2026
Aalesund
- D5-5Valerenga16 August 2026
- D1-1away to Ham-Kam9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Viking | 20 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 51 | 20 | +31 | 47 |
| 15 | Aalesund | 20 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Viking vs Aalesund
- 30 August 2026Viking 2–1 AalesundEliteserien
- 26 July 2026Aalesund 1–1 VikingEliteserien
- 18 March 2026Viking 1–2 AalesundNM Cupen
- 25 June 2025Aalesund 0–1 VikingNM Cupen
- 26 November 2023Aalesund 0–4 VikingEliteserien
- 24 July 2023Viking 3–1 AalesundEliteserien
Leading scorers: Viking and Aalesund
Viking
- P. Christiansen10 goals6 assists
- S. Kvia-Egeskog8 goals2 assists
- Z. Tripić6 goals18 assists
Aalesund
- M. Christensen7 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.