Valerenga vs Molde Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Valerenga 3-4 Molde.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Valerenga, 28% draw, 36% Molde — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Valerenga at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Valerenga vs Molde
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1O. HedvallG
- 3H. SjatilD
- 4A. OlsenD
- 37I. NasbergD
- 2K. FinnssonD
- 8H. BjordalM
- 10C. LangeM
- 28M. WestergaardM
- 77L. HarenM
- 9G. RajkovicF
- 17M. GrundetjernF
- 13A. A. Lonning S.
- 6V. HedenstadD
- 55S. JarlD
- 5K. TshiembeD
- 11G. ZahidM
- 24P. StrandM
- 15O. T. HolmM
- 7M. OfkirM
- 90O. SaeterF
- 22A. PosiadalaG
- 25M. LinnesD
- 4S. HansenD
- 33B. RisaD
- 26S. KabiniD
- 10E. BreivikM
- 30D. DagaM
- 5E. HestadM
- 23S. GranaasM
- 21O. Spiten-NysaeterM
- 9J. AbdullaiF
- 12P. LervikG
- 19E. HauganD
- 27F. DahlD
- 8M. LovikD
- 17M. DaehliM
- 11C. ZadyF
- 28V. BenderM
- 6N. OdegardM
- 24T. Kone-DohertyF
Form going into Valerenga vs Molde
Valerenga
All competitions we cover
- D5-5away to Aalesund16 August 2026
- L1-2Bodo/Glimt8 August 2026
- L0-3Ham-Kam31 July 2026
- W3-2away to Brann26 July 2026
Molde
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Tromso16 August 2026
- L1-2away to Kristiansund BK9 August 2026
- D3-3Sarpsborg 08 FF2 August 2026
- W4-2away to KFUM Oslo26 July 2026
- L1-2Brann18 July 2026
What these results say
- Valerenga conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Valerenga had three goals or more.
- Valerenga failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Molde scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Molde conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Molde had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Valerenga | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 43 | 47 | -4 | 32 |
| 5 | Molde | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 64 | 44 | +20 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Valerenga vs Molde
- 26 April 2026Molde 5–1 ValerengaEliteserien
- 28 September 2025Molde 4–1 ValerengaEliteserien
- 22 June 2025Valerenga 2–3 MoldeEliteserien
- 19 August 2023Molde 0–0 ValerengaEliteserien
- 15 July 2023Valerenga 0–4 MoldeEliteserien
Leading scorers: Valerenga and Molde
Valerenga
GoalsAssists
- L. Haren112
Molde
GoalsAssists
- K. Lonebu152
- E. Breivik1010
- E. Hestad82
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Molde won 4–3 at Valerenga. The goals: E. Hestad 11' for Molde, L. Haren 19' for Valerenga, M. Grundetjern 21' for Valerenga, S. Granaas 30' for Molde, J. Abdullai 40' for Molde, C. Zady 45' for Molde, C. Lange 45' for Valerenga. On expected goals it finished 1.82–1.73.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.