Valerenga vs Molde Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Valerenga 3-4 Molde.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Valerenga, 28% draw, 36% Molde — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Valerenga at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Valerenga vs Molde
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1O. HedvallG
- 3H. SjatilD
- 4A. OlsenD
- 37I. NasbergD
- 2K. FinnssonD
- 8H. BjordalM
- 10C. LangeM
- 28M. WestergaardM
- 77L. HarenM
- 9G. RajkovicF
- 17M. GrundetjernF
- 13A. A. Lonning S.
- 6V. HedenstadD
- 55S. JarlD
- 5K. TshiembeD
- 11G. ZahidM
- 24P. StrandM
- 15O. T. HolmM
- 7M. OfkirM
- 90O. SaeterF
- 22A. PosiadalaG
- 25M. LinnesD
- 4S. HansenD
- 33B. RisaD
- 26S. KabiniD
- 10E. BreivikM
- 30D. DagaM
- 5E. HestadM
- 23S. GranaasM
- 21O. Spiten-NysaeterM
- 9J. AbdullaiF
- 12P. LervikG
- 19E. HauganD
- 27F. DahlD
- 8M. LovikD
- 17M. DaehliM
- 11C. ZadyF
- 28V. BenderM
- 6N. OdegardM
- 24T. Kone-DohertyF
Form going into Valerenga vs Molde
Valerenga
- D5-5away to Aalesund16 August 2026
- L1-2Bodo/Glimt8 August 2026
Molde
- W3-2Tromso16 August 2026
- L1-2away to Kristiansund BK9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Valerenga | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 22 |
| 3 | Molde | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 43 | 30 | +13 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Valerenga vs Molde
- 30 August 2026Valerenga 3–4 MoldeEliteserien
- 26 April 2026Molde 5–1 ValerengaEliteserien
- 28 September 2025Molde 4–1 ValerengaEliteserien
- 22 June 2025Valerenga 2–3 MoldeEliteserien
- 19 August 2023Molde 0–0 ValerengaEliteserien
- 15 July 2023Valerenga 0–4 MoldeEliteserien
Leading scorers: Valerenga and Molde
Valerenga
- L. Haren8 goals1 assists
- C. Lange6 goals1 assists
Molde
- E. Hestad8 goals2 assists
- E. Breivik7 goals7 assists
- Trent Toure Kone Doherty6 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.