Gwangju FC
vs
FC Seoul
K League 1 prediction
The model makes it 24% Gwangju FC, 29% draw, 47% FC Seoul — fair odds of 4.17, 3.45 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Gwangju FC 0.93, FC Seoul 1.39.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Gwangju FC
- L1-2Pohang Steelers15 August 2026
- D0-0away to Bucheon FC 19958 August 2026
- L0-2away to Daejeon Citizen2 August 2026
- L1-2Jeju United FC26 July 2026
- D1-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC22 July 2026
FC Seoul
- W4-2Daejeon Citizen15 August 2026
- D0-0away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC8 August 2026
- D0-0away to Jeonbuk Motors1 August 2026
- L1-3Ulsan Hyundai FC26 July 2026
- W3-1Pohang Steelers22 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 23 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 49 | -37 | 11 |
| 1 | FC Seoul | 23 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 39 | 19 | +20 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Gwangju FC
No league goals recorded yet.
FC Seoul
- Lee Seung-Mo3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gwangju FC carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.54 for FC Seoul. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Gwangju FC D-L-L-D-L; FC Seoul W-L-D-D-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.93 goals for Gwangju FC and 1.39 for FC Seoul. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gwangju FC rate 0.41 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Seoul rate 0.63 and 1.20.
That points to 41% for over two and a half goals and 46% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (10%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gwangju FC a 0% chance of the title and FC Seoul 96.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Seoul the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Gwangju FC against 1.39 for FC Seoul. Gwangju FC's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.2 for FC Seoul.