Gwangju FC vs FC Seoul K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Gwangju FC 2-5 FC Seoul.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Gwangju FC, 31% draw, 42% FC Seoul — fair odds of 3.70, 3.23 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Seoul at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 23Kim Dong-HwaG
- 22Kwon Sung-YunD
- 37Ri Yong-jikD
- 6Ahn Young-KyuD
- 17Joao PedroD
- 40Shin Chang-MooM
- 14Yu Je-HoM
- 10Choi Kyoung-RokM
- 70Kim Woo-jinM
- 50A. Ba LouaF
- 88Moon Min-seoF
- 1Kim Kyeong-minG
- 33Park Won-JaeD
- 39Min Sang-GiD
- 2Jang Seok-HwanD
- 24Y. Kim
- 8Ju Se-JongM
- 16Joung Ji-hunM
- 11H. FridjonssonF
- 18J. IredaleF
- 25Gu Sung-YunG
- 16Choi JunD
- 5Y. Al ArabD
- 37J. RosD
- 22Kim Jin-SuD
- 7Jeong Seung-WonM
- 8Lee Seung-MoM
- 6H. BabecM
- 10Anderson OliveiraM
- 42J. SonF
- 9P. KlimalaF
- 31Kang Hyeon-MuG
- 66Park Soo-IlD
- 17Ahn Jae-minD
- 20Lee Han-DoD
- 40Park Seong-hunD
- 41Hwang Do-YunM
- 88Park Jang Han-GyeolM
- 27Moon Seon-MinF
- 19Cheon Seong-HoonF
Form going into Gwangju FC vs FC Seoul
Gwangju FC
- D2-2away to Gangwon FC26 August 2026
- L0-1Incheon United23 August 2026
- L1-2Pohang Steelers15 August 2026
- D0-0away to Bucheon FC 19958 August 2026
FC Seoul
- W1-0Bucheon FC 199525 August 2026
- W7-0away to FC Anyang22 August 2026
- W4-2Daejeon Citizen15 August 2026
- D0-0away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC8 August 2026
What these results say
- Gwangju FC did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Gwangju FC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC Seoul went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- FC Seoul won 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC Seoul scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 30 | 1 | 12 | 17 | 21 | 63 | -42 | 15 |
| 1 | FC Seoul | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 56 | 25 | +31 | 62 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Gwangju FC and FC Seoul
Gwangju FC
No player in K League 1's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
FC Seoul
- P. Klimala5 goals
- Lee Seung-Mo3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.