Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Incheon United 1-1 Jeonbuk Motors.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Incheon United, 30% draw, 31% Jeonbuk Motors — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Incheon United at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1Kim Dong-HeonG
- 39Kim Myung-soonD
- 4Kim Gun-HeeD
- 20Park Kyung-subD
- 32Lee Ju-YongD
- 10Lee Dong-RyulM
- 15Seo Jae-MinM
- 5Lee Myoung-JooM
- 70Leandro RibeiroM
- 72Lee Chung-YongF
- 9S. MugosaF
- 3Lee Sang-GiD
- 6Mun Ji-HwanM
- 11GersoF
- 13Choi Seung-guD
- 17Kim Seong-MinM
- 21Lee Tae-HuiG
- 23Jeong Chi-InM
- 26Lee Min-HyukM
- 99M. FerrierF
- 31Song Bum-KeunG
- 23Kim Tae-HwanD
- 5Park Ji-SuD
- 2Kim Young-BinD
- 66Choi Woo-JinD
- 16J. GamboaM
- 97Kim Jin-GyuM
- 7Lee Dong-JunM
- 13Kang Sang-YoonM
- 95ItaloM
- 9Tiago OroboF
- 1Lee Ju-hyeonG
- 3Yeon Je-WoonD
- 6Maeng Seong-UngM
- 10Lee Seung-WooM
- 11Kim Seung-SubF
- 15Kim Ha-junD
- 28Lee Yeong-JaeM
- 77Kim Tae-HyeonD
- 99Bruno MotaF
Form going into Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors
Incheon United
- L1-2away to FC Anyang26 August 2026
- W1-0away to Gwangju FC23 August 2026
- D1-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC16 August 2026
Jeonbuk Motors
- D0-0away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC25 August 2026
- W1-0Ulsan Hyundai FC22 August 2026
- L2-3away to Bucheon FC 199516 August 2026
- L1-3Jeju United FC8 August 2026
What these results say
- Jeonbuk Motors failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Jeonbuk Motors scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Incheon United | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 36 | 33 | +3 | 39 |
| 4 | Jeonbuk Motors | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 38 | 28 | +10 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Incheon United and Jeonbuk Motors
Incheon United
- S. Mugoša9 goals
- M. Ferrier5 goals
Jeonbuk Motors
- Tiago Orobó5 goals
- Lee Seung-Woo4 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.