5 September 2026, 11:00 UTC

VfL Wolfsburg vs Energie Cottbus 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg
Full time4 – 4

Final score: VfL Wolfsburg 4-4 Energie Cottbus.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% VfL Wolfsburg, 26% draw, 20% Energie Cottbus — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts VfL Wolfsburg at 54% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 707 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

VfL Wolfsburg96%Draw4%Energie Cottbus0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽R. Glatzel (pen)
4'
6'
King Manu
⚽Vini Souzaassist: F. Reese
25'
⚽R. Glatzelassist: A. Bernhardsson
34'
45'
⚽L. Erlein
46'
🔁J. Butlerout: M. Hannemann
46'
🔁F. Doumbiaout: C. Kinsombi
46'
🔁L. Copadoout: D. Bogdanov
49'
⚽K. Manuassist: L. Michelbrink
🔁R. Glatzelout: K. Shiogai
52'
🔁M. Arnoldout: M. Damar
53'
Elvis Rexhbeçaj
62'
67'
⚽T. Cigerci (pen)
68'
🔁L. Bittencourtout: D. Pelivan
Mathys Angely
70'
🔁Vini Souzaout: M. Svanberg
78'
🔁F. Reeseout: A. Besio
78'
⚽M. Svanbergassist: M. Angely
79'
82'
🔁L. Michelbrinkout: J. Boziaris
84'
Tolcay Ciğerci
🔁E. Rexhbecajout: Y. Gerhardt
86'
Mathys Angely
88'
Mathys Angely
88'
90+4'
Moritz Hannemann
90+2'
Dmytro Bogdanov
90'
⚽D. Bogdanovassist: C. Kinsombi

Match stats — VfL Wolfsburg vs Energie Cottbus

51%Possession49%
19Shots21
7On target9
4Corners8
3.82xG3.05

Goals against chances

VfL Wolfsburg4 from 3.82 xGabout what the chances were worth
Energie Cottbus4 from 3.05 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

VfL Wolfsburg 4-3-3
  • 30J. ZielinskiG
  • 2K. FischerD
  • 6H. WahlD
  • 22M. AngelyD
  • 21J. MaehleD
  • 27M. ArnoldM
  • 5Vini SouzaM
  • 37E. RexhbecajM
  • 17A. BernhardssonF
  • 19R. GlatzelF
  • 11F. ReeseF
Substitutes
  • 12P. PervanG
  • 18J. AdjeteyD
  • 33CleitonD
  • 31Y. GerhardtM
  • 32M. SvanbergM
  • 20M. DamarM
  • 14P. HenselM
  • 23A. BesioF
  • 7K. ShiogaiF
Coach: Tobias Strobl
Energie Cottbus 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. LotkaG
  • 21L. ErleinD
  • 2K. ManuD
  • 23F. DoumbiaD
  • 20A. BorgmannD
  • 8L. MichelbrinkM
  • 32L. BittencourtM
  • 3H. RorigM
  • 9L. CopadoM
  • 31J. ButlerM
  • 10T. CigerciF
Substitutes
  • 29K. KratzschG
  • 42J. ZaydanD
  • 16R. MaloneD
  • 4T. CampulkaD
  • 5D. PelivanM
  • 19J. BoziarisM
  • 11M. HannemannF
  • 7C. KinsombiM
  • 13D. BogdanovF
Coach: Claus-Dieter Wollitz

Form going into VfL Wolfsburg vs Energie Cottbus

VfL Wolfsburg

  • W5-2away to Karlsruher SC29 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Hannover 9616 August 2026

Energie Cottbus

  • L3-4SpVgg Greuther Fürth29 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Arminia Bielefeld16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4VfL Wolfsburg6321158+711
7Energie Cottbus62221413+18

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: VfL Wolfsburg and Energie Cottbus

VfL Wolfsburg

  • R. Glatzel4 goals1 assist
  • F. Reese3 goals4 assists
  • A. Bernhardsson3 goals3 assists

Energie Cottbus

  • T. Ciğerci4 goals1 assist
  • J. Butler3 goals1 assist

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.