VfL Wolfsburg
vs
Energie Cottbus
2. Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 71% VfL Wolfsburg, 18% draw, 11% Energie Cottbus — fair odds of 1.41, 5.56 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: VfL Wolfsburg 2.40, Energie Cottbus 0.86.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
VfL Wolfsburg
- W1-0away to Hannover 9616 August 2026
- D0-01. FC Kaiserslautern8 August 2026
Energie Cottbus
- L0-3away to Arminia Bielefeld16 August 2026
- W3-1Hannover 969 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 | Energie Cottbus | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
VfL Wolfsburg carry a model rating of 6.94 against 6.57 for Energie Cottbus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): VfL Wolfsburg D-W; Energie Cottbus W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.40 goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 0.86 for Energie Cottbus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VfL Wolfsburg rate 0.92 in attack and 0.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Energie Cottbus rate 0.78 and 1.38.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 3-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VfL Wolfsburg the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.4 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg against 0.86 for Energie Cottbus. VfL Wolfsburg's attack/defence rating is 0.92/0.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.38 for Energie Cottbus.