Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Fenerbahçe 1-2 Beşiktaş.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Fenerbahçe, 27% draw, 25% Beşiktaş — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fenerbahçe at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş
Line-ups
- 31EdersonG
- 27Nélson SemedoD
- 37M. ŠkriniarD
- 15N. AkéD
- 3A. BrownD
- 6M. GuendouziM
- 91N. KantéM
- 11M. GreenwoodM
- 17İ. KahveciM
- 70O. AydınM
- 19V. MuriqiF
- 21K. Peprah OppongD
- 5İ. YüksekM
- 7K. AktürkoğluF
- 14Y. DemirD
- 28B. ElmazM
- 34M. GünokG
- 9R. LukakuF
- 22L. MercanD
- 18M. MüldürD
- 1A. NübelG
- 62A. MurilloD
- 12E. AgbadouD
- 53E. TopçuD
- 33R. YılmazD
- 6S. ÖzcanM
- 18V. ČernýM
- 15J. OlaitanM
- 10O. KökçüM
- 19L. TrossardM
- 28D. VlahovićF
- 80D. AlemdarG
- 22Taylan BulutD
- 35Tiago DjalóD
- 29I. FakiliF
- 8K. YılmazM
- 90S. KılıçsoyF
- 9Oh Hyeon-GyuF
- 11K. OuattaraD
- 17E. PokuF
Form going into Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş
Fenerbahçe
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Samsunspor30 August 2026
- W2-1away to Lyon26 August 2026
- W4-2Konyaspor22 August 2026
- D1-1Lyon18 August 2026
- L1-2away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.15 August 2026
Beşiktaş
All competitions we cover
- W6-2Çorum FK31 August 2026
- L0-1away to Kauno Žalgiris27 August 2026
- L0-1away to Alanyaspor23 August 2026
- W3-0Kauno Žalgiris20 August 2026
- W1-0Eyüpspor16 August 2026
What these results say
- Fenerbahçe scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fenerbahçe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Fenerbahçe.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Fenerbahçe | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 16 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş
- 5 April 2026Fenerbahçe 1–0 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
- 23 December 2025Fenerbahçe 1–2 BeşiktaşTürkiye Kupası
- 2 November 2025Beşiktaş 2–3 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 4 May 2025Fenerbahçe 0–1 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
- 7 December 2024Beşiktaş 1–0 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş
Fenerbahçe
GoalsAssists
- V. Muriqi71
- M. Greenwood42
- İ. Kahveci33
Beşiktaş
GoalsAssists
- D. Vlahović60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Beşiktaş won 2–1 at Fenerbahçe. The model had leaned towards a win for Fenerbahçe at 48% and given a win for Beşiktaş 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Milan Škriniar 26' for Fenerbahçe, Ridvan Yilmaz 38' for Beşiktaş, Dušan Vlahović 73' for Beşiktaş.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.