Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Fenerbahçe 1-2 Beşiktaş.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Fenerbahçe, 27% draw, 25% Beşiktaş — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fenerbahçe at 48% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş
Line-ups
- 31EdersonG
- 27Nélson SemedoD
- 37M. ŠkriniarD
- 15N. AkéD
- 3A. BrownD
- 6M. GuendouziM
- 91N. KantéM
- 11M. GreenwoodM
- 17İ. KahveciM
- 70O. AydınM
- 19V. MuriqiF
- 21K. Peprah OppongD
- 5İ. YüksekM
- 7K. AktürkoğluF
- 14Y. DemirD
- 28B. ElmazM
- 34M. GünokG
- 9R. LukakuF
- 22L. MercanD
- 18M. MüldürD
- 1A. NübelG
- 62A. MurilloD
- 12E. AgbadouD
- 53E. TopçuD
- 33R. YılmazD
- 6S. ÖzcanM
- 18V. ČernýM
- 15J. OlaitanM
- 10O. KökçüM
- 19L. TrossardM
- 28D. VlahovićF
- 80D. AlemdarG
- 22Taylan BulutD
- 35Tiago DjalóD
- 29I. FakiliF
- 8K. YılmazM
- 90S. KılıçsoyF
- 9Oh Hyeon-GyuF
- 11K. OuattaraD
- 17E. PokuF
Form going into Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş
Fenerbahçe
- W2-0away to Samsunspor30 August 2026
- W4-2Konyaspor22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.15 August 2026
Beşiktaş
- W6-2Çorum FK31 August 2026
- L0-1away to Alanyaspor23 August 2026
- W1-0Eyüpspor16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Fenerbahçe | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
| 2 | Beşiktaş | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş
- 5 September 2026Fenerbahçe 1–2 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
- 5 April 2026Fenerbahçe 1–0 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
- 23 December 2025Fenerbahçe 1–2 BeşiktaşTürkiye Kupası
- 2 November 2025Beşiktaş 2–3 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 4 May 2025Fenerbahçe 0–1 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
- 7 December 2024Beşiktaş 1–0 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş
Fenerbahçe
- V. Muriqi2 goals1 assists
- M. Greenwood2 goals1 assists
Beşiktaş
- D. Vlahović4 goals
- V. Černý2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.