Leixoes
vs
FC Porto B
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Leixoes 2–1 FC Porto B
The model makes it 45% Leixoes, 26% draw, 29% FC Porto B — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Leixoes 2.09, FC Porto B 1.41.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Leixoes are 7th on 10 points from 6 games; FC Porto B are 17th on 4 points from 6 games — Segunda Liga.
- Leixoes are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Torreense.
- FC Porto B are without a win in 3, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Vizela.
- Last 6 meetings: Leixoes 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 20 April 2026, ended FC Porto B 0–3 Leixoes.
All Liga Portugal 2 predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Leixoes vs FC Porto B
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leixoes at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Leixoes vs FC Porto B
Leixoes
- D0-0away to Torreense11 September 2026
- W3-1Amarante6 September 2026
- W2-0away to Portimonense29 August 2026
- L2-4União de Leiria22 August 2026
- W1-0Tondela16 August 2026
FC Porto B
- D2-2Vizela14 September 2026
- L0-3away to Tondela5 September 2026
- L0-3Penafiel30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Feirense24 August 2026
- L1-3Farense16 August 2026
What these results say
- Leixoes scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Porto B failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Porto B conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Porto B had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Leixoes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 17 | FC Porto B | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Leixoes vs FC Porto B
- 20 April 2026FC Porto B 0–3 LeixoesSegunda Liga
- 6 December 2025Leixoes 2–4 FC Porto BSegunda Liga
- 16 March 2025FC Porto B 0–1 LeixoesSegunda Liga
- 27 October 2024Leixoes 3–0 FC Porto BSegunda Liga
- 24 February 2024FC Porto B 0–2 LeixoesSegunda Liga
- 1 October 2023Leixoes 1–3 FC Porto BSegunda Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Leixoes carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.42 for FC Porto B. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.09 goals for Leixoes and 1.41 for FC Porto B. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Leixoes rate 0.74 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Porto B rate 0.72 and 1.74.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Leixoes a 4.6% chance of the title and FC Porto B 0.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leixoes the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Leixoes against 1.41 for FC Porto B. Leixoes's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.74 for FC Porto B.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Leixoes at home · FC Porto B away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Leixoes 6, FC Porto B 6.
FC Porto B score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); Leixoes have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Leixoes
- at Academica24 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 36%
- vs Sporting CP B31 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 43%
- at Felgueiras 19327 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 33%
- vs Chaves15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 49%
- at AVS29 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 26%
FC Porto B
- vs União de Leiria25 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 40%
- at Amarante31 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 34%
- vs Portimonense8 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 45%
- vs Torreense15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 35%
- at Felgueiras 193229 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.