Amarante
vs
Portimonense
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Amarante 1–0 Portimonense
The model makes it 39% Amarante, 30% draw, 31% Portimonense — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Amarante 1.39, Portimonense 1.08.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Amarante are 15th on 5 points from 6 games; Portimonense are 11th on 7 points from 6 games — Segunda Liga.
- Amarante have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to União de Leiria.
- Portimonense are without a win in 4, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Tondela.
All Liga Portugal 2 predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Amarante vs Portimonense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Amarante at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Amarante vs Portimonense
Amarante
- D2-2União de Leiria13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Leixoes6 September 2026
- W1-0Benfica B30 August 2026
- D0-0away to Vizela22 August 2026
- L0-1Lusitânia Lourosa16 August 2026
Portimonense
- L0-2Tondela12 September 2026
- L0-1away to União de Leiria6 September 2026
- L0-2Leixoes29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Benfica B21 August 2026
- W2-0Vizela16 August 2026
What these results say
- Amarante failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Portimonense had two goals or fewer.
- Portimonense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Portimonense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Amarante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Amarante carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.34 for Portimonense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.39 goals for Amarante and 1.08 for Portimonense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Amarante rate 0.55 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Portimonense rate 0.56 and 1.55.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Portimonense, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Amarante a 0.2% chance of the title and Portimonense 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Amarante the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Amarante against 1.08 for Portimonense. Amarante's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.55 for Portimonense.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Amarante at home · Portimonense away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Amarante 6, Portimonense 6.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Amarante
- at Torreense26 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 21%
- vs FC Porto B31 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 38%
- at Academica7 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 30%
- vs Felgueiras 193215 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 37%
- at Sporting CP B30 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 26%
Portimonense
- at Sporting CP B24 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 27%
- vs Torreense31 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 32%
- at FC Porto B8 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 27%
- vs Academica15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 43%
- at Feirense27 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.