VfL Osnabrück vs 1. FC Magdeburg 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: VfL Osnabrück 0-3 1. FC Magdeburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% VfL Osnabrück, 21% draw, 18% 1. FC Magdeburg — fair odds of 1.64, 4.76 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
VfL Osnabrück at 61%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — VfL Osnabrück vs 1. FC Magdeburg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32Jonas KrumreyG
- 27Robin FabinskiD
- 24Jannik MüllerD
- 25Niklas WiemannD
- 31Patrick KammerbauerM
- 26Fridolin WagnerM
- 15Bjarke JacobsenM
- 23Tony LesueurM
- 29David KopaczF
- 11Robin MeißnerF
- 10Ismail BadjieF
- 28Konrad FaberD
- 8Leonhard MünstM
- 22Bernd RiesselmannF
- 6Bryan HenningM
- 19Leon OpitzM
- 1Niklas SauterG
- 20Theo JanottaD
- 18Lukas Leonard BornscheinD
- 17Luca RaimundF
- 1Dominik ReimannG
- 28Pierre NadjombeD
- 5Tobias MüllerD
- 3Anselmo Garcia McNultyD
- 17Alexander NollenbergerD
- 21Falko MichelM
- 38Luka HyryläinenM
- 33Leon MergnerM
- 8Emmanuel IyohaF
- 22Mateusz ŻukowskiF
- 23Barış AtikF
- 29Richmond TachieF
- 4Eldin DžogovićD
- 14Tony ReitzM
- 6Paul JaeckelD
- 35Magnus BaarsF
- 30Noah KruthG
- 24Tarek ChahedD
- 20Kevin MantheyF
Form going into VfL Osnabrück vs 1. FC Magdeburg
VfL Osnabrück
All competitions we cover
- L3-4away to 1. FC Heidenheim8 August 2026
1. FC Magdeburg
All competitions we cover
- L1-6Eintracht Braunschweig8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | VfL Osnabrück | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
| 4 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 14 | +11 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: VfL Osnabrück vs 1. FC Magdeburg
- 5 September 2024VfL Osnabrück 3–4 1. FC MagdeburgFriendlies Clubs
- 28 April 2024FC Magdeburg 1–1 VfL Osnabrück2. Bundesliga
- 25 November 2023VfL Osnabrück 0–2 FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
- 14 May 2022VfL Osnabrück 1–5 FC Magdeburg3. Liga
- 11 December 2021FC Magdeburg 2–1 VfL Osnabrück3. Liga
Leading scorers: VfL Osnabrück and 1. FC Magdeburg
VfL Osnabrück
GoalsAssists
- R. Meißner41
1. FC Magdeburg
GoalsAssists
- E. Iyoha60
- M. Żukowski60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
1. FC Magdeburg won 3–0 at VfL Osnabrück. The model had leaned towards a win for VfL Osnabrück at 61% and given a win for 1. FC Magdeburg 18%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: A. Nollenberger 24' for 1. FC Magdeburg, A. Nollenberger 35' for 1. FC Magdeburg, E. Iyoha 69' for 1. FC Magdeburg. On expected goals it finished 0.87–1.72.