Gençlerbirliği S.K.
vs
Fenerbahçe
Süper Lig prediction
The model makes it 28% Gençlerbirliği S.K., 22% draw, 50% Fenerbahçe — fair odds of 3.57, 4.55 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.59, Fenerbahçe 2.13.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Fenerbahçe
- 9 February 2026Fenerbahçe 3–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
- 31 August 2025Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–3 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 26 July 2021Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–4 FenerbahçeFriendlies Clubs
- 14 March 2021Fenerbahçe 1–2 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
- 21 November 2020Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–5 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 7 July 2020Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–1 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
The two sides
Gençlerbirliği S.K. carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.97 for Fenerbahçe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Fenerbahçe W-D-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Gençlerbirliği S.K. and 2.13 for Fenerbahçe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. rate 0.97 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fenerbahçe rate 1.11 and 0.87.
That points to 72% for over two and a half goals and 71% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fenerbahçe the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Gençlerbirliği S.K. against 2.13 for Fenerbahçe. Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s attack/defence rating is 0.97/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.11/0.87 for Fenerbahçe.