Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Fenerbahçe Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2-1 Fenerbahçe.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Gençlerbirliği S.K., 22% draw, 49% Fenerbahçe — fair odds of 3.45, 4.55 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Fenerbahçe at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Fenerbahçe
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 70I. EgribayatG
- 13P. PereiraD
- 6D. GoutasD
- 4Z. ZuzekD
- 77A. DursunD
- 14A. TraoreM
- 42O. DiabateM
- 8E. KemalogluM
- 10F. TongyaM
- 35O. UlgunF
- 20S. KoitaF
- 23G. AkkanG
- 53M. Cavusoglu
- 88F. UzumD
- 3Y. AydarD
- 18M. KyabouM
- 48S. UcanM
- 5P. EteboM
- 17E. A. AslanM
- 45P. MartorF
- 13T. CetinG
- 18M. MuldurD
- 37M. SkriniarD
- 15N. AkeD
- 22L. MercanD
- 5I. YuksekM
- 6M. GuendouziM
- 17I. KahveciM
- 10M. AsensioM
- 70O. AydinM
- 94TaliscaF
- 75K. SapazG
- 27N. SemedoD
- 3A. BrownD
- 14Y. E. DemirD
- 91N. KanteM
- 28B. ElmazM
- 45D. NeneF
- 11M. GreenwoodF
- 19V. MuriqiF
Form going into Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Fenerbahçe
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
No earlier matches on record this season.
Fenerbahçe
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Sturm Graz11 August 2026
- W2-0Sturm Graz5 August 2026
- D1-1away to Gornik Zabrze29 July 2026
- W1-0Gornik Zabrze21 July 2026
What these results say
- Fenerbahçe went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Fenerbahçe scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Fenerbahçe had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 11 |
| 6 | Fenerbahçe | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 10 | +19 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Fenerbahçe
- 9 February 2026Fenerbahçe 3–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
- 31 August 2025Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–3 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 26 July 2021Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–4 FenerbahçeFriendlies Clubs
- 14 March 2021Fenerbahçe 1–2 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig
- 21 November 2020Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–5 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Fenerbahçe
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Fenerbahçe
GoalsAssists
- V. Muriqi71
- M. Greenwood62
- İ. Kahveci53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gençlerbirliği S.K. beat Fenerbahçe 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Fenerbahçe at 49% and given a win for Gençlerbirliği S.K. 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Talisca 13' for Fenerbahçe, F. Tongya 37' for Gençlerbirliği S.K., O. Ulgun 56' for Gençlerbirliği S.K.. On expected goals it finished 1.18–3.27.