Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Holstein Kiel 2-2 FC St. Pauli.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Holstein Kiel, 25% draw, 26% FC St. Pauli — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Holstein Kiel at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1T. WeinerG
- 32H. SekineD
- 13I. NekicD
- 26D. ZecD
- 40L. ParduziD
- 28J. MeffertM
- 20A. KapralikM
- 8G. BalziM
- 15K. DavidsenM
- 11A. BernhardssonM
- 19P. HarresF
- 41L. RothenhagenG
- 6M. IvezicD
- 3N. TakahashiD
- 47J. TolkinD
- 10J. TherkelsenM
- 27I. UgohM
- 30T. TasdelenM
- 17F. AlidouF
- 22M. ReimersM
- 1B. VollG
- 4D. NemethD
- 6M. MathisenD
- 15T. AndoD
- 11A. PyrkaM
- 20M. RasmussenM
- 16J. FujitaM
- 23L. OppieM
- 10B. HrgotaF
- 19M. KaarsF
- 18T. HaraF
- 33D. MitovG
- 25A. DzwigalaD
- 21L. RitzkaD
- 8E. SmithM
- 2R. JanssonD
- 22S. KleinM
- 14E. AhlstrandM
- 17S. BanksF
- 26R. JonesF
Form going into Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli
Holstein Kiel
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to SV Darmstadt 988 August 2026
FC St. Pauli
All competitions we cover
- D1-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 8 |
| 9 | FC St. Pauli | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli
- 12 April 2025Holstein Kiel 1–2 FC St. PauliBundesliga
- 29 November 2024FC St. Pauli 3–1 Holstein KielBundesliga
- 23 February 2024Holstein Kiel 3–4 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 17 September 2023FC St. Pauli 5–1 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 19 May 2023Holstein Kiel 3–4 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli
Holstein Kiel
GoalsAssists
- P. Harres53
FC St. Pauli
GoalsAssists
- Abdoulie Ceesay50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Holstein Kiel at 49% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Kaars 32' for FC St. Pauli, T. Hara 45' for FC St. Pauli, P. Harres 56' for Holstein Kiel, J. Therkelsen 88' for Holstein Kiel. On expected goals it finished 2.09–2.56.