Holstein Kiel
vs
FC St. Pauli
2. Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 49% Holstein Kiel, 25% draw, 26% FC St. Pauli — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Holstein Kiel 1.75, FC St. Pauli 1.21.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Holstein Kiel
- D2-2away to SV Darmstadt 988 August 2026
FC St. Pauli
- D1-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Holstein Kiel | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | FC St. Pauli | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Holstein Kiel
- P. Harres1 goals1 assists
FC St. Pauli
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Holstein Kiel carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.72 for FC St. Pauli. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Holstein Kiel D; FC St. Pauli D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.21 for FC St. Pauli. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Holstein Kiel rate 0.81 in attack and 0.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC St. Pauli rate 0.88 and 1.14.
That points to 57% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Holstein Kiel the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Holstein Kiel against 1.21 for FC St. Pauli. Holstein Kiel's attack/defence rating is 0.81/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.14 for FC St. Pauli.