FC St. Pauli
vs
Karlsruher SC
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: FC St. Pauli 2–1 Karlsruher SC
The model makes it 51% FC St. Pauli, 26% draw, 23% Karlsruher SC — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: FC St. Pauli 2.11, Karlsruher SC 1.02.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC St. Pauli at 51% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 675 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC
FC St. Pauli
- D1-1away to Energie Cottbus20 September 2026
- W1-0VfL Wolfsburg12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Arminia Bielefeld4 September 2026
- L1-21. FC Kaiserslautern30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Holstein Kiel14 August 2026
Karlsruher SC
- L0-11. FC Nürnberg19 September 2026
- L0-3Energie Cottbus13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Hannover 964 September 2026
- L2-5VfL Wolfsburg29 August 2026
- D0-0away to 1. FC Kaiserslautern15 August 2026
What these results say
- FC St. Pauli scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC St. Pauli failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC St. Pauli conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Karlsruher SC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Karlsruher SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FC St. Pauli | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Karlsruher SC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC
- 20 July 2025FC St. Pauli 6–1 Karlsruher SCFriendlies Clubs
- 6 April 2024Karlsruher SC 2–1 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 28 October 2023FC St. Pauli 2–1 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
- 28 May 2023FC St. Pauli 1–1 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
- 12 November 2022Karlsruher SC 4–4 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 5 March 2022FC St. Pauli 3–1 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
The two sides
FC St. Pauli carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.35 for Karlsruher SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.11 goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.02 for Karlsruher SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC St. Pauli rate 0.72 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Karlsruher SC rate 0.63 and 1.70.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC St. Pauli a 0.2% chance of the title and Karlsruher SC 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC St. Pauli the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for FC St. Pauli against 1.02 for Karlsruher SC. FC St. Pauli's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.7 for Karlsruher SC.