FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: FC St. Pauli 2-0 Karlsruher SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% FC St. Pauli, 23% draw, 19% Karlsruher SC — fair odds of 1.72, 4.35 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
FC St. Pauli at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. VollG
- 11A. PyrkaD
- 4D. NemethD
- 21L. RitzkaD
- 23L. OppieD
- 8E. SmithM
- 24C. MetcalfeM
- 20M. RasmussenM
- 16J. FujitaM
- 7Y. NiangF
- 9Abdoulie CeesayF
- 33D. MitovG
- 22Samuel KleinM
- 14E. AhlstrandM
- 17S. BanksF
- 25A. DźwigałaD
- 18T. HaraF
- 10B. HrgotaF
- 26R. JonesF
- 19M. KaarsF
- 1H. BernatG
- 28M. FrankeD
- 22C. KobaldD
- 24S. TrémouletD
- 36Rafael Pinto PedrosaM
- 10M. WanitzekM
- 26D. H. ZorM
- 33V. BerghM
- 3D. OfliM
- 13S. FukudaF
- 19Louey Ben FarhatF
- 25L. EgloffM
- 30R. HimmelmannG
- 2S. JungD
- 15Paul SchollD
- 6S. VäänänenM
- 23T. CivejaM
- 7K. WiethaupM
- 11N. EichingerM
- 37J. PonenteF
Form going into FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC
FC St. Pauli
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Energie Cottbus20 September 2026
- W1-0VfL Wolfsburg12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Arminia Bielefeld4 September 2026
- L1-21. FC Kaiserslautern30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Holstein Kiel14 August 2026
Karlsruher SC
All competitions we cover
- L0-11. FC Nürnberg19 September 2026
- L0-3Energie Cottbus13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Hannover 964 September 2026
- L2-5VfL Wolfsburg29 August 2026
- D0-0away to 1. FC Kaiserslautern15 August 2026
What these results say
- FC St. Pauli scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC St. Pauli failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC St. Pauli conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Karlsruher SC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Karlsruher SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FC St. Pauli | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
| 16 | Karlsruher SC | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC
- 20 July 2025FC St. Pauli 6–1 Karlsruher SCFriendlies Clubs
- 6 April 2024Karlsruher SC 2–1 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 28 October 2023FC St. Pauli 2–1 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
- 28 May 2023FC St. Pauli 1–1 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
- 12 November 2022Karlsruher SC 4–4 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: FC St. Pauli and Karlsruher SC
FC St. Pauli
GoalsAssists
- Abdoulie Ceesay50
Karlsruher SC
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC St. Pauli beat Karlsruher SC 2–0. The model had made a win for FC St. Pauli its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Abdoulie Ceesay 32' for FC St. Pauli, Lars Ritzka 51' for FC St. Pauli. On expected goals it finished 0.84–1.18.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC St. Pauli a 32.8% chance to finish in the top four: 35.1% after a win, 30.7% after a draw, 23.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.1%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.
For Karlsruher SC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 50.5% going in: 43.5% after a win, 48.1% after a draw, 53.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.1%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on FC St. Pauli v Karlsruher SC has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 51% / 26% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 58% / 23% / 19%: the biggest move is FC St. Pauli's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- FC St. Pauli win58%▲ +7
- Draw23%▼ −3
- Karlsruher SC win19%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.