Fortuna Köln
vs
Würzburger Kickers
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Fortuna Köln 1–0 Würzburger Kickers
The model makes it 40% Fortuna Köln, 32% draw, 28% Würzburger Kickers — fair odds of 2.50, 3.13 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Fortuna Köln 1.11, Würzburger Kickers 0.86.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Fortuna Köln are 18th on 10 points from 10 games; Würzburger Kickers are 16th on 11 points from 10 games — 3. Liga.
- Fortuna Köln are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Stuttgart II.
- Würzburger Kickers have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Waldhof Mannheim.
- Last 6 meetings: Würzburger Kickers 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 April 2019, ended FC Wurzburger Kickers 2–0 Fortuna Köln.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fortuna Köln vs Würzburger Kickers
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fortuna Köln at 40% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Fortuna Köln vs Würzburger Kickers
Fortuna Köln
- L0-1Stuttgart II16 October 2026
- L0-2away to Rot-Weiß Essen13 October 2026
- D0-0FC Saarbrücken10 October 2026
- W3-1away to Havelse25 September 2026
- L0-2SV Wehen16 September 2026
Würzburger Kickers
- W2-0Waldhof Mannheim17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Havelse13 October 2026
- L0-2Hansa Rostock10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Verl18 September 2026
- W1-0Alemannia Aachen15 September 2026
What these results say
- Fortuna Köln failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Köln failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Köln conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Würzburger Kickers scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Fortuna Köln | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 | Würzburger Kickers | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Fortuna Köln
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 31% today
Würzburger Kickers
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 33% today
From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Fortuna Köln vs Würzburger Kickers
- 27 April 2019FC Wurzburger Kickers 2–0 Fortuna Köln3. Liga
- 24 November 2018Fortuna Köln 0–0 FC Wurzburger Kickers3. Liga
- 7 April 2018FC Wurzburger Kickers 1–0 Fortuna Köln3. Liga
- 28 October 2017Fortuna Köln 2–1 FC Wurzburger Kickers3. Liga
- 18 March 2016FC Wurzburger Kickers 4–1 Fortuna Köln3. Liga
- 3 October 2015Fortuna Köln 0–3 FC Wurzburger Kickers3. Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fortuna Köln carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.14 for Würzburger Kickers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.11 goals for Fortuna Köln and 0.86 for Würzburger Kickers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fortuna Köln rate 0.34 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Würzburger Kickers rate 0.49 and 2.01.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Würzburger Kickers, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fortuna Köln a 0% chance of the title and Würzburger Kickers 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fortuna Köln the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Fortuna Köln against 0.86 for Würzburger Kickers. Fortuna Köln's attack/defence rating is 0.34/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.01 for Würzburger Kickers.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fortuna Köln at home · Würzburger Kickers away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Fortuna Köln 10, Würzburger Kickers 10.
Fortuna Köln score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Würzburger Kickers have let in 4 there.
Würzburger Kickers score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Fortuna Köln have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Fortuna Köln
- at Waldhof Mannheim7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 27%
- vs SV Meppen21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 38%
- at FC Viktoria Köln29 Nov · 3. Ligawin 18%
- vs Hansa Rostock5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 33%
Würzburger Kickers
- vs Hoffenheim II8 Nov · 3. Ligawin 41%
- at SSV Jahn Regensburg21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 24%
- vs Fortuna Düsseldorf28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 32%
- vs FC Viktoria Köln5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.