SSV Jahn Regensburg
vs
Hansa Rostock
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2–1 Hansa Rostock
The model makes it 43% SSV Jahn Regensburg, 26% draw, 31% Hansa Rostock — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.72, Hansa Rostock 1.36.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- SSV Jahn Regensburg are 17th on 10 points from 10 games; Hansa Rostock are 5th on 15 points from 10 games — 3. Liga.
- SSV Jahn Regensburg are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to SV Wehen.
- Hansa Rostock have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Alemannia Aachen.
- Last 6 meetings: SSV Jahn Regensburg 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Hansa Rostock 2–5 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hansa Rostock
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SSV Jahn Regensburg at 43% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hansa Rostock
SSV Jahn Regensburg
- D0-0SV Wehen17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Verl14 October 2026
- W5-0Havelse10 October 2026
- D3-3away to Stuttgart II19 September 2026
- L1-2Fortuna Düsseldorf15 September 2026
Hansa Rostock
- L0-2away to Alemannia Aachen17 October 2026
- L0-2SV Meppen13 October 2026
- W2-0away to Würzburger Kickers10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Rot-Weiß Essen20 September 2026
- W3-2Stuttgart II16 September 2026
What these results say
- SSV Jahn Regensburg failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- SSV Jahn Regensburg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for SSV Jahn Regensburg had three goals or more.
- Hansa Rostock conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hansa Rostock had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 10 |
| 5 | Hansa Rostock | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 10% today
Hansa Rostock
Chance to finish in the top four · 25% today
From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hansa Rostock
- 25 April 2026Hansa Rostock 2–5 SSV Jahn Regensburg3. Liga
- 30 November 2025SSV Jahn Regensburg 0–3 Hansa Rostock3. Liga
- 6 May 2023Hansa Rostock 2–0 Jahn Regensburg2. Bundesliga
- 29 October 2022Jahn Regensburg 0–3 Hansa Rostock2. Bundesliga
- 17 April 2022Hansa Rostock 1–1 Jahn Regensburg2. Bundesliga
- 6 November 2021Jahn Regensburg 2–3 Hansa Rostock2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hansa Rostock
SSV Jahn Regensburg
GoalsAssists
- N. Boujellab31
- L. Hermes12
Hansa Rostock
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
SSV Jahn Regensburg carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.3 for Hansa Rostock. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.36 for Hansa Rostock. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SSV Jahn Regensburg rate 0.57 in attack and 1.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hansa Rostock rate 0.61 and 1.85.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Hansa Rostock, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 0.3% chance of the title and Hansa Rostock 2.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg against 1.36 for Hansa Rostock. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.85 for Hansa Rostock.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SSV Jahn Regensburg at home · Hansa Rostock away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: SSV Jahn Regensburg 10, Hansa Rostock 10.
Hansa Rostock score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); SSV Jahn Regensburg have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
SSV Jahn Regensburg
- at SV Meppen8 Nov · 3. Ligawin 34%
- vs Würzburger Kickers21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 51%
- at FC Ingolstadt 0429 Nov · 3. Ligawin 29%
- vs Preußen Münster5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 40%
Hansa Rostock
- vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 58%
- at MSV Duisburg22 Nov · 3. Ligawin 22%
- vs Havelse27 Nov · 3. Ligawin 64%
- at Fortuna Köln5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.