Fenerbahçe
vs
Göztepe
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Fenerbahçe 3–1 Göztepe
The model makes it 72% Fenerbahçe, 16% draw, 12% Göztepe — fair odds of 1.39, 6.25 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Fenerbahçe 3.22, Göztepe 1.12.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 81%, under 2.5: 19%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Fenerbahçe are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Fenerbahçe are 3rd on 16 points from 8 games; Göztepe are 15th on 6 points from 7 games — Süper Lig.
- Fenerbahçe are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Alanyaspor.
- Göztepe are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-0 win away to Eyüpspor.
- Last 6 meetings: Fenerbahçe 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 25 January 2026, ended Fenerbahçe 1–1 Göztepe.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fenerbahçe at 72% here. Across 3,865 settled matches (as of 17 October 2026), 322 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe
Fenerbahçe
- W3-0Alanyaspor17 October 2026
- W3-0away to Rizespor10 October 2026
- W8-0Eyüpspor20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Gaziantep FK14 September 2026
- L1-2Beşiktaş5 September 2026
Göztepe
- W4-0away to Eyüpspor12 October 2026
- D2-2Rizespor20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Alanyaspor12 September 2026
- L2-4Gaziantep FK7 September 2026
- L2-3away to Galatasaray29 August 2026
What these results say
- Fenerbahçe scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fenerbahçe kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Fenerbahçe had three goals or more.
- Göztepe scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Göztepe had three goals or more.
- Göztepe failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 6 | +16 | 16 |
| 15 | Göztepe | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Fenerbahçe
Chance to win the league · 37% today
Göztepe
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 16% today
From our Süper Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe
Fenerbahçe and Göztepe have met 6 times in the records we hold, Fenerbahçe has won 2 of them to Göztepe's 0, with 4 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Fenerbahçe on 25 Jan 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 6 |
| Göztepe | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 9 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Jan 2026
Süper LigFenerbahçe 1–1 Göztepe - 16 Aug 2025
Süper LigGöztepe 0–0 Fenerbahçe - 26 Jan 2025
Süper LigFenerbahçe 3–2 Göztepe - 17 Aug 2024
Süper LigGöztepe 2–2 Fenerbahçe - 16 Apr 2022
Süper LigFenerbahçe 2–0 Göztepe - 29 Nov 2021
Süper LigGöztepe 1–1 Fenerbahçe
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe | 1.41 | 0.93 |
| Göztepe | 0.92 | 1.38 |
Leading scorers: Fenerbahçe and Göztepe
Fenerbahçe
GoalsAssists
- V. Muriqi61
- M. Greenwood42
- O. Aydın23
Göztepe
GoalsAssists
- Juan50
- André Henrique31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Fenerbahçe carry a model rating of 7.07 against 6.65 for Göztepe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.22 goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.12 for Göztepe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fenerbahçe rate 1.41 in attack and 0.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Göztepe rate 0.92 and 1.38.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fenerbahçe a 36.9% chance of the title and Göztepe 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,938 correct results out of 4,046 settled predictions (48%), with 405 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fenerbahçe the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.22 expected goals for Fenerbahçe against 1.12 for Göztepe. Fenerbahçe's attack/defence rating is 1.41/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.38 for Göztepe.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fenerbahçe at home · Göztepe away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FenerbahçeGöztepe
Fenerbahçe are 3rd after 8 Süper Lig matches (between 3rd and 17th so far); Göztepe are 15th after 7 (between 6th and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Fenerbahçe 7, Göztepe 7.
Fenerbahçe score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Göztepe have let in 2 there.
Göztepe score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Fenerbahçe have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Fenerbahçe
- vs Liverpool4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 48%
- at Çorum FK8 Nov · Süper Ligwin 51%
- at Kocaelispor21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 52%
Göztepe
- vs Başakşehir7 Nov · Süper Ligwin 34%
- at Erzurumspor FK22 Nov · Süper Ligwin 39%
- vs Trabzonspor30 Nov · Süper Ligwin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.