Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
vs
Dinamo Bucuresti
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0–1 Dinamo Bucuresti
The model makes it 27% Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe, 32% draw, 41% Dinamo Bucuresti — fair odds of 3.70, 3.13 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).
Expected goals: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0.80, Dinamo Bucuresti 1.25.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Dinamo Bucuresti
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Bucuresti at 41% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Dinamo Bucuresti
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- L0-1away to Uta Arad18 September 2026
- W3-1CFR 1907 Cluj12 September 2026
- L0-5away to FC Botosani5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Arges Pitesti29 August 2026
- D1-1Farul Constanta23 August 2026
Dinamo Bucuresti
- W4-0Farul Constanta20 September 2026
- W3-1away to Csikszereda11 September 2026
- W2-1FCSB5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Corvinul Hunedoara29 August 2026
- W2-1Universitatea Cluj22 August 2026
What these results say
- Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Bucuresti went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Bucuresti scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Bucuresti won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Dinamo Bucuresti
- 30 November 2024Dinamo Bucuresti 1–1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
- 27 July 2024Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–1 Dinamo BucurestiLiga I
- 4 December 2023Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2–1 Dinamo BucurestiLiga I
- 31 July 2023Dinamo Bucuresti 0–3 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
- 8 November 2022Dinamo Bucuresti 2–3 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheCupa României
- 20 March 2022Dinamo Bucuresti 0–0 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
Leading scorers: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and Dinamo Bucuresti
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Dinamo Bucuresti
- D. Armstrong4 goals8 assists
- Martín Pascual4 goals
- Alberto Soro3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.65 for Dinamo Bucuresti. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.80 goals for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and 1.25 for Dinamo Bucuresti. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe rate 0.45 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Bucuresti rate 0.80 and 1.19.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe a 0.1% chance of the title and Dinamo Bucuresti 46.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Bucuresti the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.8 expected goals for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe against 1.25 for Dinamo Bucuresti. Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.19 for Dinamo Bucuresti.