23 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Venezia vs Lecce Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venice
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Venezia 0-2 Lecce.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Venezia, 23% draw, 26% Lecce — fair odds of 1.96, 4.35 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Venezia at 51%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Venezia0%Draw1%Lecce99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
Kialonda Gaspar
•Thierry Correia
16'
46'
🔁A. Galloout: C. Ndaba
46'
⚽O. Gorterassist: L. Coulibaly
59'
Oumar Ngom
61'
🔁O. Gorterout: Y. Maleh
🔁T. Rendallout: R. Haps
64'
🔁K. Perezout: M. Dagasso
70'
71'
Danilo Veiga
74'
🔁K. Ndriout: Tiago Gabriel
74'
🔁W. Geubbelsout: N. Stulic
Matteo Dagasso
78'
80'
⚽Tiago Gabriel
🔁A. Hainautout: R. Sagrado
85'
🔁T. Basicout: A. Rrahmani
85'
90+1'
🔁S. Pierottiout: O. Gandelman

Match stats — Venezia vs Lecce

71%Possession29%
19Shots12
7On target5
5Corners3
2.1xG2.21

Goals against chances

Venezia0 from 2.10 xGless than the chances were worth
Lecce2 from 2.21 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Venezia 3-5-2
  • 1F. StankovicG
  • 3J. SchingtienneD
  • 17A. Bella-KotchapD
  • 4B. FranjicD
  • 18A. HainautM
  • 71K. PerezM
  • 6G. BusioM
  • 26T. BasicM
  • 14T. RendallM
  • 10J. YeboahF
  • 45A. AdamsF
Substitutes
  • 96L. MontipoG
  • 5R. HapsD
  • 25R. HalhalD
  • 20R. SagradoD
  • 95A. GomesD
  • 21T. J. HelgasonM
  • 30M. DagassoM
  • 19S. SohmM
  • 55S. PanadaM
Coach: Giovanni Stroppa
Lecce 4-3-3
  • 30W. FalconeG
  • 17D. VeigaD
  • 4K. GasparD
  • 5J. SiebertD
  • 25A. GalloD
  • 29L. CoulibalyM
  • 79O. NgomM
  • 28O. GorterM
  • 50S. PierottiF
  • 69W. GeubbelsF
  • 11K. NdriF
Substitutes
  • 1M. BleveG
  • 33P. PenevG
  • 8S. FofanaM
  • 3C. NdabaD
  • 44Tiago GabrielD
  • 14Y. MalehM
  • 16O. GandelmanM
  • 34H. LaerkeF
  • 9N. StulicF
Coach: Eusebio Di Francesco

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Venezia11209821-136
14Lecce113171222-1010

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Venezia vs Lecce

  • 6 April 2025Lecce 1–1 VeneziaSerie A
  • 25 November 2024Venezia 0–1 LecceSerie A
  • 20 May 2021Lecce 1–1 VeneziaSerie B
  • 17 May 2021Venezia 1–0 LecceSerie B
  • 16 March 2021Venezia 2–3 LecceSerie B

The full Venezia vs Lecce record →

The result against the call

Lecce won 2–0 at Venezia. The model had leaned towards a win for Venezia at 51% and given a win for Lecce 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: O. Gorter 46' for Lecce, Tiago Gabriel 80' for Lecce. On expected goals it finished 2.10–2.21.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.