Venezia
vs
Lecce
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 77% Venezia, 14% draw, 9% Lecce — fair odds of 1.30, 7.14 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Venezia 2.83, Lecce 0.91.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Venezia vs Lecce
- 6 April 2025Lecce 1–1 VeneziaSerie A
- 25 November 2024Venezia 0–1 LecceSerie A
- 20 May 2021Lecce 1–1 VeneziaSerie B
- 17 May 2021Venezia 1–0 LecceSerie B
- 16 March 2021Venezia 2–3 LecceSerie B
- 5 December 2020Lecce 2–2 VeneziaSerie B
The two sides
Venezia carry a model rating of 7.16 against 6.74 for Lecce. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.83 goals for Venezia and 0.91 for Lecce. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Venezia rate 1.36 in attack and 0.73 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lecce rate 0.89 and 1.10.
That points to 72% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (10%), 3-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Venezia the highest probability at 77%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.83 expected goals for Venezia against 0.91 for Lecce. Venezia's attack/defence rating is 1.36/0.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.1 for Lecce.