23 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Torino vs AC Milan Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Olimpico di Torino, Turin
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Torino 1-2 AC Milan.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Torino, 21% draw, 28% AC Milan — fair odds of 1.96, 4.76 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Torino at 51%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Torino0%Draw1%AC Milan99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

52'
Ruben Loftus-Cheek
56'
🔁R. Loftus-Cheekout: L. Modric
56'
🔁A. Jashariout: A. Rabiot
64'
⚽A. Cisseassist: A. Rabiot
66'
🔁P. Estupinanout: D. Bartesaghi
66'
🔁A. Cisseout: A. Saelemaekers
66'
⚽A. Rabiotassist: S. Chukwueze
🔁M. Pedersenout: N. Fortini
70'
🔁C. Casadeiout: C. Adams
70'
🔁G. Simeoneout: A. Njie
70'
76'
🔁M. Gilaout: M. Gabbia
🔁A. Cacciamaniout: Z. Aboukhlal
81'
🔁P. Comuzzoout: S. Kulenovic
85'
⚽C. Adamsassist: G. Gineitis
90'

Match stats — Torino vs AC Milan

41%Possession59%
8Shots19
1On target4
2Corners4
1.01xG1.61

Goals against chances

Torino1 from 1.01 xGabout what the chances were worth
AC Milan2 from 1.61 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Torino 3-4-2-1
  • 26D. MascardiG
  • 23S. CocoD
  • 44A. IsmajliD
  • 15P. ComuzzoD
  • 16M. PedersenM
  • 66G. GineitisM
  • 28K. Fitz-JimM
  • 77A. CacciamaniM
  • 10N. VlasicF
  • 22C. CasadeiF
  • 18G. SimeoneF
Substitutes
  • 76L. SivieroG
  • 1A. PaleariG
  • 3C. BiraghiD
  • 21A. DembeleD
  • 29N. FortiniD
  • 25M. PelliniD
  • 11G. OristanioM
  • 6E. IlkhanM
  • 79A. LuongoF
Coach: Ignazio Abate
AC Milan 3-4-2-1
  • 16M. MaignanG
  • 34M. GilaD
  • 5K. De WinterD
  • 31S. PavlovicD
  • 21S. ChukwuezeM
  • 80Y. MusahM
  • 30A. JashariM
  • 2P. EstupinanM
  • 8R. Loftus-CheekF
  • 70A. CisseF
  • 9G. RamosF
Substitutes
  • 41L. P. BouyerG
  • 96L. TorrianiG
  • 33D. BartesaghiD
  • 46M. GabbiaD
  • 13S. DiawaraD
  • 14L. ModricM
  • 56A. SaelemaekersF
  • 4S. RicciM
  • 42F. TerraccianoD
Coach: Ruben Amorim

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Torino114251517-214
4AC Milan117312313+1024

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Torino vs AC Milan

  • 21 March 2026AC Milan 3–2 TorinoSerie A
  • 8 December 2025Torino 2–3 AC MilanSerie A
  • 22 February 2025Torino 2–1 AC MilanSerie A
  • 17 August 2024AC Milan 2–2 TorinoSerie A
  • 18 May 2024Torino 3–1 AC MilanSerie A

The full Torino vs AC Milan record →

Leading scorers: Torino and AC Milan

Torino

GoalsAssists

  • C. Adams40

AC Milan

GoalsAssists

  • A. Rabiot54
  • A. Cissè50
  • Diego Moreira43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AC Milan won 2–1 at Torino. The model had leaned towards a win for Torino at 51% and given a win for AC Milan 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Cisse 64' for AC Milan, A. Rabiot 66' for AC Milan, C. Adams 90' for Torino. On expected goals it finished 1.01–1.61.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.