Torino
vs
AC Milan
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 52% Torino, 21% draw, 27% AC Milan — fair odds of 1.92, 4.76 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Torino 2.24, AC Milan 1.62.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Torino vs AC Milan
- 21 March 2026AC Milan 3–2 TorinoSerie A
- 8 December 2025Torino 2–3 AC MilanSerie A
- 22 February 2025Torino 2–1 AC MilanSerie A
- 17 August 2024AC Milan 2–2 TorinoSerie A
- 18 May 2024Torino 3–1 AC MilanSerie A
- 26 August 2023AC Milan 4–1 TorinoSerie A
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Torino carry a model rating of 6.89 against 6.87 for AC Milan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.24 goals for Torino and 1.62 for AC Milan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Torino rate 1.14 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AC Milan rate 1.08 and 1.04.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 72% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Torino the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Torino against 1.62 for AC Milan. Torino's attack/defence rating is 1.14/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.08/1.04 for AC Milan.