Cruz Azul
vs
Atlas
Liga MX prediction
The model makes it 51% Cruz Azul, 26% draw, 23% Atlas — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Cruz Azul 1.66, Atlas 1.05.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Cruz Azul
- L2-3Atlante FC2 August 2026
- W2-1Puebla22 July 2026
- W3-2away to Atletico San Luis18 July 2026
Atlas
- L0-2Monterrey2 August 2026
- W1-0away to Santos Laguna26 July 2026
- W3-2away to Leon18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 9 | Atlas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Cruz Azul
- J. Márquez2 goals1 assists
Atlas
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cruz Azul carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.63 for Atlas. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Cruz Azul W-W-L; Atlas W-W-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Cruz Azul and 1.05 for Atlas. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cruz Azul rate 0.86 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atlas rate 0.62 and 1.02.
That points to 51% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cruz Azul the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Cruz Azul against 1.05 for Atlas. Cruz Azul's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.02 for Atlas.