Cruz Azul vs Atlas Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Cruz Azul 0-2 Atlas.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Cruz Azul, 19% draw, 19% Atlas — fair odds of 1.61, 5.26 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Cruz Azul at 62%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cruz Azul vs Atlas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23K. MierG
- 16J. MarquezD
- 4W. DittaD
- 20J. ParadelaD
- 5J. OrozcoD
- 3O. CamposD
- 8A. PalavecinoM
- 10A. MontanoM
- 19C. RodriguezM
- 7N. IbanezF
- 11C. EbereF
- 1A. GudinoG
- 49J. Diaz
- 12A. MontesD
- 55R. GonzalezM
- 213J. Duran Islas
- 17A. GarciaM
- 70I. Silva
- 196I. Ramírez
- 21G. FernandezF
- 12C. VargasG
- 13G. AguirreD
- 28M. CapassoD
- 21R. SchlegelD
- 16M. ValenzuelaD
- 6E. ZaldivarM
- 15P. RamirezM
- 11DukM
- 58A. GonzalezM
- 10L. EstevesM
- 9F. MonzonF
- 22A. SanchezG
- 4A. MoraD
- 5J. RodriguezD
- 2Gustavo FerrareisF
- 17J. LozanoD
- 27V. H. Rios De AlbaM
- 192J. SerratoM
- 23S. HernandezM
- 251L. GamboaF
Form going into Cruz Azul vs Atlas
Cruz Azul
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Club Tijuana17 August 2026
- L2-3Atlante FC2 August 2026
- W2-1Puebla22 July 2026
- W3-2away to Atletico San Luis18 July 2026
Atlas
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Tigres UANL16 August 2026
- L0-2Monterrey2 August 2026
- W1-0away to Santos Laguna26 July 2026
- W3-2away to Leon18 July 2026
What these results say
- Cruz Azul scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Cruz Azul conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Cruz Azul had three goals or more.
- Atlas won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Atlas scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Atlas conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 26 | +11 | 32 |
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cruz Azul vs Atlas
- 10 May 2026Cruz Azul 1–0 AtlasLiga MX
- 3 May 2026Atlas 2–3 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 14 January 2026Cruz Azul 2–0 AtlasLiga MX
- 20 July 2025Atlas 3–3 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 12 January 2025Cruz Azul 1–1 AtlasLiga MX
- 7 November 2024Atlas 2–2 Cruz AzulLiga MX
Leading scorers: Cruz Azul and Atlas
Cruz Azul
GoalsAssists
- A. Montaño65
- N. Ibáñez63
Atlas
GoalsAssists
- F. Monzón51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atlas won 2–0 at Cruz Azul. The model had leaned towards a win for Cruz Azul at 62% and given a win for Atlas 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: E. Zaldivar 30' for Atlas, F. Monzon 45' for Atlas. On expected goals it finished 1.21–1.79.