Frosinone
vs
Juventus
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 31% Frosinone, 23% draw, 46% Juventus — fair odds of 3.23, 4.35 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Frosinone 1.51, Juventus 1.86.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Frosinone vs Juventus
- 25 February 2024Juventus 3–2 FrosinoneSerie A
- 11 January 2024Juventus 4–0 FrosinoneCoppa Italia
- 23 December 2023Frosinone 1–2 JuventusSerie A
- 15 February 2019Juventus 3–0 FrosinoneSerie A
- 23 September 2018Frosinone 0–2 JuventusSerie A
- 7 February 2016Frosinone 0–2 JuventusSerie A
The two sides
Frosinone carry a model rating of 6.94 against 7.19 for Juventus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Frosinone and 1.86 for Juventus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Frosinone rate 1.21 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Juventus rate 1.30 and 0.66.
That points to 65% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Juventus the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Frosinone against 1.86 for Juventus. Frosinone's attack/defence rating is 1.21/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.3/0.66 for Juventus.