Atalanta
vs
Sassuolo
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 57% Atalanta, 21% draw, 22% Sassuolo — fair odds of 1.75, 4.76 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Atalanta 2.20, Sassuolo 1.33.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Atalanta vs Sassuolo
- 1 March 2026Sassuolo 2–1 AtalantaSerie A
- 9 November 2025Atalanta 0–3 SassuoloSerie A
- 17 February 2024Atalanta 3–0 SassuoloSerie A
- 3 January 2024Atalanta 3–1 SassuoloCoppa Italia
- 20 August 2023Sassuolo 0–2 AtalantaSerie A
- 4 February 2023Sassuolo 1–0 AtalantaSerie A
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atalanta carry a model rating of 6.95 against 6.85 for Sassuolo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.20 goals for Atalanta and 1.33 for Sassuolo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atalanta rate 1.08 in attack and 0.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sassuolo rate 1.07 and 1.08.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atalanta the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.2 expected goals for Atalanta against 1.33 for Sassuolo. Atalanta's attack/defence rating is 1.08/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.07/1.08 for Sassuolo.