Atalanta vs Sassuolo Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Atalanta 2-1 Sassuolo.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% Atalanta, 20% draw, 20% Sassuolo — fair odds of 1.67, 5.00 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Atalanta at 60%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atalanta vs Sassuolo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 29M. CarnesecchiG
- 77D. ZappacostaD
- 3O. KossounouD
- 42G. ScalviniD
- 47L. BernasconiD
- 8M. PasalicM
- 70G. GaetanoM
- 13EdersonM
- 59N. ZalewskiF
- 9G. ScamaccaF
- 18G. RaspadoriF
- 57M. SportielloG
- 95P. VismaraG
- 23S. KolasinacD
- 40R. ObricD
- 16R. BellanovaD
- 99E. ElmasM
- 6I. SulemanaM
- 15M. De RoonM
- 10L. SamardzicM
- 49A. MuricG
- 46S. CinquegranoD
- 26C. OdenthalD
- 31T. MacchioniD
- 3J. DoigD
- 17V. AdzicM
- 18N. MaticM
- 50D. BakolaM
- 7C. VolpatoF
- 9K. BowieF
- 45A. LaurienteF
- 80S. TuratiG
- 21J. IdzesD
- 16F. LeysenD
- 2F. MissoriD
- 23A. Di BitontoD
- 33R. ObradorD
- 8A. GhionM
- 35L. LipaniM
- 42K. ThorstvedtM
Form going into Atalanta vs Sassuolo
Atalanta
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Hapoel Tel Aviv20 August 2026
Sassuolo
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Atalanta | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 14 |
| 17 | Sassuolo | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atalanta vs Sassuolo
- 1 March 2026Sassuolo 2–1 AtalantaSerie A
- 9 November 2025Atalanta 0–3 SassuoloSerie A
- 17 February 2024Atalanta 3–0 SassuoloSerie A
- 3 January 2024Atalanta 3–1 SassuoloCoppa Italia
- 20 August 2023Sassuolo 0–2 AtalantaSerie A
Leading scorers: Atalanta and Sassuolo
Atalanta
GoalsAssists
- N. Krstović72
Sassuolo
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atalanta beat Sassuolo 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Atalanta at 60%. The goals: G. Raspadori 6' for Atalanta, C. Odenthal 55' for Sassuolo, N. Krstovic 65' for Atalanta. On expected goals it finished 0.71–2.73.