Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa Y Justicia Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Velez Sarsfield 1-1 Defensa Y Justicia.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Velez Sarsfield, 20% draw, 33% Defensa Y Justicia — fair odds of 2.13, 5.00 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Velez Sarsfield at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa Y Justicia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Tomás MarchioriG
- 4Joaquín GarcíaD
- 32Thiago SilveroD
- 16Lisandro MagallánD
- 3Elías GómezD
- 29Rodrigo AliendroM
- 8Lucas RobertoneM
- 11Matías PellegriniM
- 22Manuel LanziniM
- 17Alex VerónM
- 15Dilan GodoyF
- 5Claudio BaezaM
- 39Thiago AguirreF
- 48Luca FelerM
- 37Juan Cruz PolicellaF
- 42Agustin CortezG
- 47Alexis PereyraD
- 18Simon EscobarD
- 19Leo CristaldoD
- 2Emanuel MammanaD
- 1Matías BorgognoG
- 16Ayrton PortilloD
- 29Damián FernándezD
- 21David MartínezD
- 3Fernando RománD
- 15Santiago SosaM
- 8César PérezM
- 27Domingo BlancoM
- 19David BarbonaM
- 24Juan Manuel GutiérrezM
- 9Leandro FernándezF
- 28Valentín LozaD
- 26Jeremías LuccoF
- 30Demian DominguezD
- 22Maximiliano PorcelM
- 7Tomás PérezF
- 36Lautaro AmadeG
- 6Ezequiel BurdinD
- 2Samuel LuceroD
- 44Jonás CabreraM
Form going into Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa Y Justicia
Velez Sarsfield
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Boca Juniors8 August 2026
- W1-0Independiente3 August 2026
- W3-1away to Talleres Cordoba30 July 2026
- W1-0Instituto Cordoba24 July 2026
Defensa Y Justicia
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Newell's Old Boys9 August 2026
- L0-3away to Estudiantes La Plata1 August 2026
- W2-1Deportivo Riestra29 July 2026
- D1-1Aldosivi24 July 2026
What these results say
- Velez Sarsfield went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Velez Sarsfield scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Velez Sarsfield won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Defensa Y Justicia conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Defensa Y Justicia scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Defensa Y Justicia had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 25 | 17 | +8 | 28 |
| 4 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 15 | +6 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa Y Justicia
- 14 February 2026Defensa Y Justicia 1–1 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 3 August 2024Velez Sarsfield 3–0 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 30 March 2023Defensa Y Justicia 0–0 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 25 June 2022Defensa Y Justicia 1–1 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 28 July 2021Velez Sarsfield 0–0 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Velez Sarsfield and Defensa Y Justicia
Velez Sarsfield
GoalsAssists
- R. Martínez132
Defensa Y Justicia
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Velez Sarsfield and Defensa Y Justicia drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Velez Sarsfield at 47% and given a draw 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: M. Lanzini 4' for Velez Sarsfield, L. Fernandez 79' for Defensa Y Justicia. On expected goals it finished 0.85–1.29.